TLDR
- Arista Networks raised its Total Addressable Market (TAM) from $60 billion to $105 billion at the Morgan Stanley Tech Conference on March 3, 2026.
- Management reaffirmed its AI networking revenue forecast of $3.25 billion for 2026.
- Revenue is expected to top $10 billion this year, up from $9 billion last year.
- Piper Sandler raised its price target to $175 from $159, keeping an Overweight rating.
- ANET stock surged 8.2% on March 4, closing at $134.83.
Arista Networks (ANET) jumped 8.2% on March 4, 2026, the day after management laid out a bigger-than-expected market opportunity at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference.
The stock closed at $134.83 following the presentation on March 3.
The headline number that moved markets was the TAM revision. Arista lifted its Total Addressable Market estimate to $105 billion, up from a prior figure of $60 billion. That’s a near-doubling of the company’s stated opportunity.
Management also reaffirmed its 2026 AI networking revenue outlook of $3.25 billion. That figure represents roughly 30% of total expected revenue.
Full-year revenue is forecast to come in above $10 billion, up from $9 billion in the prior year. The company also hinted it could have four customers each contributing more than 10% of total revenue this year.
The conference covered more than just the numbers. Arista outlined its AI network architecture, built around an all-Ethernet AI spine and leaf design. Its flagship AI Spine product, the 7800, operates at 800 gigabits and is central to scale-across deployments.
The company is also working with data center builders on three deployment models: scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across.
Analyst Reaction
The stock move followed a price target increase from Piper Sandler on February 13. The firm raised its target to $175 from $159 and kept its Overweight rating after Arista’s latest quarterly results beat expectations.
Revenue came in at $2.49 billion for the quarter, ahead of the $2.38 billion estimate. Earnings per share were $0.82, topping the $0.76 forecast.
Piper Sandler also pointed to Arista’s revised annual growth projection of 25%, up five percentage points from its prior forecast.
Supply Chain Watch
Arista flagged one ongoing challenge at the conference: a memory shortage affecting its customers. Management put the resolution timeline at roughly two years, and said the company is investing in chips, silicon, and memory to work around the issue.
That’s a constraint worth watching, particularly as customer demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow.
On the technical side, ANET is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The nearest resistance level sits at $137.15. The 52-week low is $59.43, putting the current price about 127% above that floor.
The stock remains about 18% below its 52-week high of $164.94.
Piper Sandler’s price target of $175 represents roughly 30% upside from the current price as of the March 4 close.
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