TLDR
- TD Cowen cut its DAL price target from $82 to $71, citing fuel cost concerns
- Analyst warns airline margins won’t improve in 2026 unless fuel prices drop sharply
- DAL missed revenue estimates badly — $14.61B vs. $15.80B expected
- Insiders sold over 620,000 shares worth $44M in the last quarter
- DAL is down nearly 15% year-to-date; consensus target sits at $79.93
Delta Air Lines is having a rough ride in 2026. The stock dropped 2.3% on Monday, extending a year-to-date decline of nearly 15%, as Wall Street grows more cautious on the carrier’s near-term earnings outlook.
The latest pressure came from TD Cowen, which lowered its price target on DAL from $82 to $71. The bank also trimmed earnings estimates for major U.S. airlines after updating its fuel cost assumptions to reflect current market prices.
TD Cowen’s note was blunt: airline margins are unlikely to recover this year unless fuel prices fall sharply. That’s a tough pill for a sector that’s already dealing with cost pressures across the board.
Despite the cut, TD Cowen kept its Buy rating on DAL. The revised $71 target still implies about 27.7% upside from Monday’s closing price of $55.61.
DAL closed down $3.40 on Monday. Volume came in at around 4.4 million, below its average of just over 9 million — suggesting the move was more of a drift than a panic.
Earnings Miss Weighs on Sentiment
Delta’s most recent quarterly results didn’t help the mood. The company reported Q4 EPS of $1.55, a small beat over the $1.53 consensus. But revenue came in at $14.61 billion — well short of the $15.80 billion analysts had expected.
That’s a miss of more than $1 billion on the top line, and it’s hard to look past that. Revenue was still up 2.9% year-over-year, but the gap versus expectations left investors unimpressed.
Management guided Q1 2026 EPS in the range of $0.50 to $0.90, and full-year 2026 EPS of $6.50 to $7.50. Analysts currently forecast $7.63 EPS for the year — sitting at the top end of that range.
The stock’s 52-week range runs from $34.74 to $76.39. At $55.61, DAL is trading well below its 50-day moving average of $68.99.
Insider Selling Raises Eyebrows
Insider activity has also drawn attention. Over the last quarter, insiders sold a total of 620,550 shares worth approximately $44.1 million. Corporate insiders now hold just 0.88% of the company.
Among the sellers: EVP Erik Storey Snell unloaded 39,420 shares in January at $71.02, cutting his position by over 52%. EVP Steven M. Sear sold 38,600 shares in February at $75.05, reducing his stake by roughly 27%.
Neither sale is necessarily a red flag on its own, but the scale across multiple executives over a short window is worth noting.
On the institutional side, several smaller firms added new positions in DAL during Q4 2025. Institutional investors collectively own 69.93% of the stock.
The broader analyst community remains constructive on DAL. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 22 have a Buy rating, one has a Strong Buy, and one has a Hold. The consensus price target is $79.93 — still well above current levels.
Other firms that have weighed in recently include Wolfe Research ($83 target, Outperform), Goldman Sachs ($80, Buy), and Barclays ($85, Overweight).
The stock has a P/E ratio of 7.25 and a market cap of approximately $36.3 billion.
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