TLDR
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin
- The global store-of-value market is currently worth about $38 trillion
- Bitcoin holds less than 4% of that market today
- Bitcoin would only need 17% of a projected $121 trillion market to hit $1 million
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buying support the long-term case
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has restated his view that Bitcoin could one day reach $1 million per coin. He made the case in a memo titled “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million,” published this week.
Hougan’s argument is based on the global store-of-value market — assets people hold to preserve wealth over time. Gold is the main player in this space.
The store-of-value market is currently worth just under $38 trillion. Of that, gold makes up about $36 trillion, while Bitcoin accounts for roughly $1.4 trillion, or less than 4% of the total.
Hougan says many investors underestimate Bitcoin because they don’t account for how fast the store-of-value market itself has grown. When the first gold ETF launched in the U.S. in 2004, the gold market was worth about $2.5 trillion. It has since grown to nearly $40 trillion — a compound annual growth rate of around 13%.
That growth has been driven by rising government debt, geopolitical tension, and loose monetary policy, according to Hougan.
How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million
If the store-of-value market keeps growing at a similar pace, Hougan estimates it could reach $121 trillion within a decade. At that size, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to hit $1 million per coin.
Today, Bitcoin would need more than 50% of the current market to reach that price. But Hougan’s case rests on the market growing — not on Bitcoin taking a majority share.
He points to recent market developments as evidence the trend is moving in the right direction. A few years ago, there were no spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Now, they are among the fastest-growing ETF products in history.
Institutional investors have also started buying in. Harvard’s endowment fund and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund have both added Bitcoin to their portfolios.
Bitcoin’s Volatility Has Been Declining
Hougan also noted that Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has been falling. As a result, some professional investors are now looking at allocations of around 5%, up from earlier recommendations closer to 1%.
Hougan does acknowledge the risks. The store-of-value market may not grow at the same pace, and Bitcoin may not keep gaining market share.
He also said projections could prove “too conservative” if concerns about government debt and currency debasement continue to rise.
This is not the first time Hougan has made this argument. In a 2023 memo, he said Bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2032. Last month, he said it could reach $6.5 million over the next 20 years.
Bitcoin currently represents less than 4% of the global store-of-value market, according to Hougan’s latest figures.
