TLDR
- Rivian reports Q1 earnings Thursday after market close, with consensus EPS of -$0.60 and revenue of $1.37B
- Q1 deliveries came in at 10,400 vehicles, up 20% year-over-year and ahead of expectations
- Full-year delivery outlook of 62K–67K units was reaffirmed
- Software and services revenue more than doubled to $447M in Q4; investors will watch for continued growth
- Average analyst price target sits at $18.16, above the current price of $16.16
Rivian is heading into Thursday’s earnings report with some momentum behind it.
Q1 deliveries came in at 10,400 vehicles, up 20% year-over-year and above the roughly 9,900 units the market had expected. The company also reaffirmed its full-year delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 units, pointing to a stronger ramp through the rest of 2026.
With delivery numbers largely out of the way, attention now turns to the financial details.
Consensus estimates put Q1 revenue at $1.37 billion, which would represent about 10.5% growth year-over-year. The consensus EPS estimate is -$0.60.
Over the last two years, Rivian has beaten EPS estimates only 38% of the time, but has cleared revenue expectations 63% of the time. In the past three months, EPS estimates have seen 10 upward revisions and zero downward ones.
One area analysts are watching closely is average selling price. If automotive revenue grows faster than delivery volume, it would suggest Rivian is selling more of its higher-priced R1T and R1S models — a positive signal for margins.
Software Revenue in Focus
Software and services revenue more than doubled to $447 million in Q4, making up roughly one-third of total revenue. Investors will want to see that trend continue.
The Autonomy platform is a key part of the story here. Sustained adoption would support a recurring, higher-margin revenue stream — something that sets Rivian apart from peers in the EV space.
The Volkswagen partnership is also on the radar. Any update on software licensing plans tied to that deal could point to a capital-light growth path that doesn’t rely purely on vehicle production volumes.
Seeking Alpha analyst Gary Alexander said he doesn’t expect Q1 to be a major catalyst for the stock, but described it as “a largely positive” one while the market waits for the R2 Performance launch in June.
Stock Performance and Analyst Targets
Rivian stock is down about 15% year-to-date, though it has gained 11.5% over the past month, in line with broader positive sentiment across the auto manufacturing sector, where stocks are up 14.1% on average over that period.
The average analyst price target is $18.16, compared to the current price of $16.16 — suggesting roughly 12% upside from current levels.
Peers in the auto sector have set a decent tone ahead of Rivian’s report. Autoliv reported revenue growth of 6.8%, beating estimates by 4.8%, and traded up 9% on the results. Mobileye reported revenue growth of 27.4%, beat estimates by 7.8%, and rose 16.8% following its report.
Rivian has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates multiple times over the past two years, so Thursday’s print will matter.
The R2 mass-market vehicle launch in June remains the next major milestone for the company.
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