TLDR
- Grayscale Research says Bitcoin bottomed between $65,000 and $70,000 in February 2026
- On-chain data shows recent buyers are back near breakeven at around $74,000
- Bitcoin hit a 3-month high of $78,417 as Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire
- The Bitcoin Bull Score Index turned neutral for the first time in this bear market
- Analysts like Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant still expect a deeper low later in 2026
Grayscale Research is calling the bottom on Bitcoin. The firm says BTC already hit its floor in the $65,000 to $70,000 range back in February 2026. Not everyone agrees.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale and former Goldman Sachs macro strategist, pointed to on-chain data as the basis for the call. Bitcoin rallied more than 20% from its February 5 low near $63,000, bringing recent buyers back to near breakeven.
The key metric Grayscale used is called realized price. It tracks the average cost basis of coins based on when they last moved on-chain. For coins that changed hands in the past one to three months, that realized price sits around $74,000 — just below where Bitcoin is trading now.
“If Bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market,” Pandl said.
Bitcoin hit a 3-month high of $78,417 on April 22, 2026. The move came as President Donald Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire, which pushed oil prices back below $90 per barrel. BTC was trading around $77,990 at time of writing, with 24-hour volume up 14%.
Bull Market Index Shifts for First Time
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has moved into neutral territory for the first time during this bear market. That’s a shift worth watching, though Moreno noted the same happened briefly in March 2022 before Bitcoin continued falling.
Derivatives data also showed bullish moves. Total BTC futures open interest rose nearly 6% to $59.53 billion in 24 hours. Open interest on CME climbed roughly 1% and jumped 6% on Binance.
10x Research flagged that April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are leaning bullish, even as funding rates stayed negative and volumes remained low. The firm also noted that institutional accumulation is appearing earlier in this cycle than in the last two recoveries.
Other Analysts Still Expect a Deeper Low
Not every researcher shares Grayscale’s view. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, told BeInCrypto his base case puts the cycle trough in October 2026. He said an earlier bottom would need capitulation well beyond what mid-term years typically see.
“Bitcoin could bottom sooner, as early as May. But in order for that to happen, there would have to be some type of massive capitulation well below what we historically expect to see in midterm years,” Cowen said.
Joao Wedson, CEO of on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, expects a low in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant has identified a broader window from June to December 2026, with September through November as the most likely range.
Bitcoin also broke above analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance band on the weekly chart. That level has historically marked key turning points for the asset.
