TLDR
- Tom Lee says three consecutive monthly gains for Bitcoin would confirm the bear market is over
- BTC is up ~5% in May, following gains in March and April; currently trading near $80,000
- Lee predicts tokenization and AI agents will drive the next crypto bull cycle
- Stablecoin transaction volumes have already surpassed Visa payments, Lee noted
- Lee predicts 2027 could deliver “one of the biggest rallies we see in our lifetime”
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, says the crypto bear market is likely over. He made the comments at Consensus 2026 in Miami on May 7.
Lee set a clear marker: if Bitcoin closes May above $76,000 with a third straight monthly gain, the downtrend is finished. “You have never in a bear market if bitcoin closes up three consecutive months,” he said.
Bitcoin closed April at $76,300 according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index. At the time of writing, BTC is trading just below $80,000, up roughly 20% over the past month.
The call was partly sparked by veteran technical analyst John Bollinger, creator of Bollinger Bands. Bollinger posted on X that his trend model for Bitcoin had turned positive and that his Tactica program was now fully invested. Lee shared the post with a simple caption: “Crypto spring is here.”
TOM LEE SAYS "IF #BITCOIN CLOSES ABOVE $76,000 THIS MONTH, THE BEAR MARKET IS DEFINITIVELY OVER." 🚀
"CRYPTO WINTER IS OVER" 👀 pic.twitter.com/RvHAfofK9z
— The Bitcoin Conference (@TheBitcoinConf) May 7, 2026
Lee also pointed to a recent drop from $126,000 in October to $60,000 in February as the bear phase. He believes investors are still psychologically anchored to that downturn and are underestimating the current rebound.
AI and Tokenization Driving the Next Cycle
Lee argued that two major trends will power the next bull market: tokenization of real-world assets and AI agents using blockchain rails to move money autonomously.
He pointed to stablecoin adoption as a sign this is already happening. Stablecoin transaction volumes have surpassed Visa payments, he said. Grayscale’s research suggests the $300 trillion global securities market could eventually migrate to blockchain as tokenized assets.
“The networks that host a large share of tokenized activity are going to capture the economic value,” Lee said.
Legacy Finance vs. Crypto-Native Firms
Lee compared JPMorgan, projected to earn roughly $60 billion this year with 300,000 employees, to firms like Tether and Jane Street, which generate similar profits with far fewer staff.
He said crypto-native companies eliminate many traditional financial processes. “In 10 years, half of the largest financial institutions in the world will be native digital,” he said.
Speaking on CNBC, Lee also linked crypto’s strength to AI-driven equity gains, strong corporate earnings, and capital still sitting on the sidelines.
He did acknowledge risks ahead, including uncertainty around a new Federal Reserve chair and global oil supply concerns.
Lee also reiterated his earlier prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 this year if it makes a new all-time high. Bitcoin’s current price sits near $79,245.
