TLDR
- Tesla stock is up ~30% over the past 30 days but still down 4% year-to-date
- CEO Elon Musk is traveling to China, with hopes of securing FSD approval for the Chinese market
- Tesla reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions in Q1 2026, up from 850,000 a year ago
- Production of the Model S and X has stopped to make way for Optimus humanoid robot manufacturing
- McKinsey projects robotaxi services will roll out at large scale globally by 2030
Tesla stock ($TSLA) is trading around $448, up roughly 30% over the past 30 days, though it remains down about 4% for the year.
The stock rose early Wednesday before slipping back, trading at $432.08, down 0.3%, as CEO Elon Musk boarded Air Force One en route to China alongside a group of U.S. business leaders including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg.
The trip comes with high stakes. Tesla is hoping to receive approval to sell its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver-assistance product in China, a market that could meaningfully expand its subscriber base.
In the U.S., FSD costs $99 per month. Tesla ended Q1 2026 with 1.3 million FSD subscribers, up from around 850,000 a year ago.
China approval would be a boost for a company that has framed its future around AI-driven products — FSD, robotaxis, and humanoid robots.
Tuesday’s session saw the stock fall 2.6%, snapping a four-day winning streak that had added more than 14% to the price. That winning run was partly fueled by optimism around the China FSD deal.
Tesla’s traditional auto business has been under pressure. The company faces declining vehicle sales, a product lineup that hasn’t changed much, and growing competition globally.
Rather than aggressively refresh its vehicle range, Musk has been steering resources toward longer-term bets.
Optimus Takes Center Stage
Earlier this month, Tesla halted production of the Model S and Model X. That capacity is now being converted into a production line for its Optimus humanoid robot.
Investors are watching closely for an update on Optimus version three, which could be demonstrated this summer.
Tesla has been guarded about revealing too much. On the Q1 earnings call, Musk said competitors do “frame-by-frame analysis” of anything Tesla releases and copy it as fast as they can.
Robotaxi Outlook
Beyond robots, the robotaxi opportunity is a major part of the Tesla bull case.
McKinsey & Co. projects that robotaxis will roll out at large scale globally around 2030. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood puts the total addressable market at $5 trillion to $10 trillion.
Tesla has already started producing its Cybercab model, a vehicle built specifically for the robotaxi market. Pilot services are active in several metro areas.
Tesla’s existing manufacturing scale, which looks like a weakness given the auto sales slowdown, could become an advantage as robotaxi demand grows.
Tesla reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions at the end of Q1 2026, with the potential for that number to climb materially if China gives the green light.
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