TLDR
- TSLA was up 0.3% in premarket trading at $377.17, still down ~16% year to date
- Elon Musk called Optimus version 3 “special” in a post, but no reveal date is set
- Tesla is deliberately withholding V3 details to prevent competitors copying its work
- Robo-taxi expansion is seen as the nearer-term catalyst for the stock
- Q1 EPS beat estimates at $0.41 vs $0.39, but revenue missed at $22.39B vs $22.96B expected
Tesla stock nudged higher in premarket trading on Wednesday, up 0.3% to $377.17, after Elon Musk posted about the Optimus humanoid robot on social media. That’s about as exciting as things have gotten lately for TSLA investors.
The stock is still down around 16% year to date and roughly 13% since Tesla reported Q1 earnings on April 22. At $376.02 at the open, it sits well below its 52-week high of $498.83.
Tesla is very wise. Elon Musk on why Tesla hasn’t unveiled Optimus V3 yet:
"By the middle of this year it’ll be ready to show up. We’re also a little hesitant to show V3 off because we find our competitors do a frame-by-frame analysis whenever we release something.
They copy… pic.twitter.com/wy45Wshj2c
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) April 22, 2026
Tesla’s Q1 results were a mixed bag. The company earned $0.41 per share, beating the $0.39 consensus estimate. But revenue came in at $22.39 billion, short of the $22.96 billion analysts expected. Revenue was still up 15.8% year over year.
The Spending Problem
The bigger issue hanging over the stock is Tesla’s capital spending plan. The company said it would spend around $25 billion in 2026 on new plants and equipment — up from an earlier estimate of $20 billion, and more than double the $9 billion it spent in 2025. That’s keeping free cash flow negative and rattling investors.
The spending is tied to Tesla’s push into AI-driven products: robo-taxis and humanoid robots. The problem is those products aren’t generating meaningful revenue yet.
Tesla is currently running robo-taxi operations in four cities and hopes to expand to more by year-end. Cities like Dallas and Houston are seen as potential expansion targets, which would give investors something concrete to cheer.
Optimus V3: Coming Soon-ish
Musk called the third version of the Optimus robot “special” on Wednesday morning, but didn’t offer much more than that. The company was originally going to unveil V3 in Q1, but pulled back.
“We’re also a little hesitant to show V3 off because we find our competitors do a frame-by-frame analysis whenever we release something and copy everything they possibly can,” Musk said on April 22.
Assembly line production of Optimus is slated to begin later this year at Tesla’s Fremont, California facility, with larger volumes expected in 2027. A public reveal could come when production kicks off, likely in late summer, though timelines have slipped before.
On the analyst side, the picture is mixed. Wedbush kept its “outperform” rating with a $600 price target. Canaccord Genuity raised its target from $420 to $450 with a “buy.” But the consensus among 41 analysts is a “Hold,” with an average price target of $398.42.
Nineteen analysts rate TSLA a Buy, sixteen a Hold, and six a Sell.
On the insider front, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,264 TSLA shares on March 6 at an average of $397.03. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 25,809 shares on March 30 at $359.33. Insiders sold a combined $20.8 million worth of stock over the past 90 days.
Tesla’s market cap sits at $1.41 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 344.97. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $384.47, and its 200-day moving average is $419.88.
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