TLDR
- Bernstein raised Arm’s price target to $500 from $300, keeping its Outperform rating
- AMD’s price target lifted to $600 from $525, with Outperform rating maintained
- Intel’s target raised to $100 from $65, rating kept at Market-Perform
- Server CPU total addressable market revised up to $223B by 2030, from $137B
- Agentic AI is shifting CPU-to-GPU ratios from 1:4 toward 1:1 in data centers
Bernstein has raised price targets on three major chip stocks — Arm, AMD, and Intel — pointing to a surge in server CPU demand driven by the rise of agentic AI.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD
Agentic AI Is Changing the Math on CPUs
Analyst David Dai and his team at Bernstein say the AI market is shifting from basic chatbots to agentic AI — systems that autonomously plan and execute complex tasks. That shift puts more pressure on CPUs, not just GPUs.
The team says the CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI data centers is moving from 1:4 or 1:8 toward 1:1 or higher. That changes the demand picture for CPU makers.
Because of this, Bernstein revised its server CPU total addressable market estimate to $223B by 2030. That’s up from $137B, and roughly six times the 2025 TAM of $37B.
The firm’s base case assumes $3.5 trillion in AI data center spending and a 1:1 CPU-to-GPU pairing for inference workloads.
Arm Seen as the Biggest Beneficiary
Bernstein lifted Arm’s price target to $500 from $300, keeping its Outperform rating. The firm calls Arm the “structural beneficiary” of the CPU comeback.
Arm’s chip architecture is seen as well-suited for agentic AI due to its power efficiency. The company is also moving beyond licensing its intellectual property and building its own CPUs.
Bernstein now forecasts Arm will hit $22B in revenue by 2030 — up from the company’s own target of $15B. SoftBank, which holds a majority stake in Arm, also had its price target raised, to ¥11,200 from ¥8,200.
AMD’s price target was raised to $600 from $525. The stock closed at around $507 on June 16, putting Bernstein’s target about 18% above that level.
This is the second upward revision in two months. Bernstein had previously upgraded AMD from Market Perform in May 2026, setting a $525 target at that time — itself a jump from a prior $265 target.
Intel and AMD Both Get a Lift
The firm projects AMD will earn around $14.60 per share in fiscal 2027, potentially rising to $20 by 2028 if AI trends hold. Some other analysts have set targets between $625 and $665 for AMD.
Intel’s price target was raised to $100 from $65. Its rating remained at Market-Perform. Bernstein said it updated its Intel model to reflect the stronger server CPU environment, with estimates moving “more materially” than for AMD.
Bernstein also raised the price target on Chinese CPU designer Hygon to 450 yuan from 280 yuan, expecting it to capture over 35% of China’s x86 server CPU market by 2030.
AMD’s hardware previously had a strong following among cryptocurrency miners, but the investment case has now firmly shifted to AI server demand.
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