TLDR
- Bitcoin fell to about $63,964 after the Fed kept rates steady but signaled possible tightening later in 2026.
- Markets increased bets on at least one 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year.
- A U.S.-Iran framework peace deal supported broader risk sentiment, but crypto lagged AI and chip stocks.
- Bitcoin is trading just above its 200-week simple moving average near $62,358.
- Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo said dips below that long-term average have often led to strong returns in past cycles.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell on Thursday and gave back much of its recent rebound. The pullback came after the Federal Reserve signaled a tougher policy path for the rest of 2026.
BTC dropped 2.8% to about $63,964 in early trading. The move came after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as markets expected.
Even so, investors focused on the Fed’s updated tone. More policymakers now appear open to a rate hike later this year because inflation risks remain elevated.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also pointed to changes in how the central bank may communicate future rate plans. That added another layer of uncertainty for markets.
🚨FED TO STOP HINTING AT FUTURE RATE MOVES
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed will now react to incoming economic data instead of "signaling" rate cuts or hikes in advance.
He added that the Fed is determined to bring inflation back to 2%. pic.twitter.com/EhG5aCQko0
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) June 17, 2026
Fed outlook weighs on bitcoin
Rate expectations moved higher after the meeting. CME FedWatch data showed traders were pricing in at least one 25 basis point hike by the end of 2026.
Higher rates usually reduce appetite for assets seen as more speculative. That left bitcoin under pressure even as other parts of the market found support.
A U.S.-Iran framework peace deal was signed remotely on Wednesday evening. The agreement is meant to reopen key shipping lanes and create a path for more talks.
The development helped fuel a risk-on move in markets. But investors favored AI and chip stocks rather than crypto, which continued to lag.
Key long-term level stays in focus
Bitcoin is now trading just above its 200-week simple moving average, which sits near $62,358. It briefly slipped below that level twice in the past two weeks before recovering by each weekly close.
Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo said that closes below the 200-week average have been rare since mid-2017. He said buyers at that level have historically seen median returns of 113% over one year and 313% over two years.
Perfumo also said the median time to break even after buying below that line was only two days. He added that the median maximum drawdown over the following year was 9%.
A tweet included in the source material came from analyst Ted Pillows. He said bitcoin could form another lower high in the second half of 2026 before a full capitulation move, which was a bearish outlook for the months ahead.
This is how $BTC could play out in the 2nd half of 2026.
Another lower high followed by full capitulation. pic.twitter.com/4ZYzDh5FOL
— Ted (@TedPillows) June 17, 2026
That view contrasts with the long-term support data around the 200-week average. For now, the latest factual point is that bitcoin is hovering just above that level after falling toward $63,000 following the Fed meeting.
