TLDR
- SpaceX stock rose 1% Thursday in premarket trading to $193.75 after its first-ever down day Wednesday, when it dropped 5% to $191.82
- The stock is still up 42% from its $135 IPO price set on June 12
- Zephirin Group set a $310 price target, citing a supply-demand imbalance with only 640 million tradeable shares
- Arete analyst Andrew Beale issued the highest target at $401, valuing SpaceX at ~$5.3 trillion
- Six analysts have issued price targets ranging from $63 (Morningstar) to $401 (Arete), with an average consensus of $156
SpaceX (SPCX) stock bounced back Thursday after posting its first-ever loss on Wednesday. In premarket trading, the stock climbed 1% to $193.75, following a 5% drop that closed at $191.82.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Despite the pullback, SPCX remains up 42% from its $135 IPO price. The stock had previously run as high as $225.64 — a 67% gain — over three consecutive up days before Wednesday’s dip.
Wednesday’s slide came as broader markets sold off. The Nasdaq fell 1.3% after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and retail sales data pointed to softer discretionary spending.
Two new analyst ratings helped lift sentiment Thursday morning. The Zephirin Group flagged an “underappreciated supply-demand imbalance,” pointing out that only around 640 million shares are currently available to trade. That’s a thin float for the 300-plus index-tracking funds trying to get SpaceX exposure. Zephirin set a $310 price target.
Then Arete analyst Andrew Beale topped that with a $401 target and a Buy rating. Beale sees major upside in Starlink v3 satellites, which are larger and more capable than the current version. The catch: they require launches on Starship, SpaceX’s next-generation rocket still working toward full commercial deployment.
At $401, Beale is valuing SpaceX at roughly $5.3 trillion, or 80 times estimated 2027 sales.
What the Bulls Are Saying
Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan called SpaceX “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” He sees a potential $10 trillion addressable market by 2035, with space-based data centers as the key growth driver.
KGI Securities initiated with an outperform and a $227 target. Wolfe Research came in at $175, also with an outperform.
Where the Bears Stand
Not everyone is buying in at these levels. CFRA analyst Keith Snyder issued a sell rating with a $115 price target. His main concern: SpaceX’s heavy reliance on Starship, which hasn’t yet reached full commercial status.
Snyder wrote that delays or technical setbacks in Starship “could ripple across nearly every major growth initiative.” He also flagged concerns about the company’s capital-intensive model and free cash flow.
Morningstar is the most bearish at $63, modeling three scenarios for the AI business. Even in their “moonshot” scenario, SpaceX would need a 77% chance of overcoming engineering hurdles and running multiple Starship launches per week to justify the $135 IPO price.
The six analysts currently covering SPCX show an average consensus price target of $156 — well below the stock’s current price near $208 as of the latest data.
With options trading now active and passive ETFs building positions, supply and demand dynamics are playing an outsized role in early price action.
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