TLDR
- Wall Street expects Q2 EPS of $0.54 on revenue of $27.4 billion, up from $0.40 EPS a year ago
- Tesla sold ~480,000 vehicles in Q2, up 25% year over year
- Robotaxi and Optimus robot updates are expected to be the main stock drivers, not earnings results
- TSLA is trading around $369–$374, down 18% year to date in 2026
- GuruFocus values TSLA at $291.42, flagging it as ~27% overvalued at current prices
Tesla reports second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and for once, the numbers almost feel like a sideshow.
TSLA stock was trading around $374 ahead of Tuesday’s open, down 18% so far in 2026. The options market is already pricing in a sharp move after the report, reflecting how much uncertainty surrounds the company right now.
Wall Street expects Q2 earnings of $0.54 per share on revenue of $27.4 billion. That compares to $0.40 EPS and $22.5 billion in revenue from the same quarter a year ago.
Tesla delivered roughly 480,000 vehicles in Q2, a 25% jump year over year. Higher oil prices, Tesla buyer incentives, and pullback from traditional automakers on EVs after the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired in September all played a role.
Energy storage also had a strong quarter. RBC analyst Tom Narayan noted that 13.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage sales “recovered nicely” from a weak Q1. He expects gross margins to come in better than expected.
Narayan rates TSLA a Buy with a $500 price target. He recently raised that target by $25 to factor in a possible Tesla-SpaceX merger.
Eyes on Robotaxi and Optimus
Despite solid delivery numbers, most analysts agree the stock is being valued on future products, not current earnings.
“Strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, but we continue to believe Robotaxi and Optimus will be the primary drivers for the stock,” Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco wrote in a preview note.
Tesla launched its AI-trained robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025. Investors will be watching for expansion plans. They’ll also be looking for updates on Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, with a third version expected.
Full Self Driving now has 1.3 million subscribers. That number will be watched closely for growth signals.
Percoco holds a Hold rating with a $417 price target. He does not expect Wednesday’s update to drive a decisive shift in valuation.
Valuation Debate
GuruFocus puts Tesla’s GF Value at $291.42, implying the stock is roughly 27% overvalued at current prices. The trailing twelve-month P/E sits at 339, well above its five-year median of 107.
Insiders have sold $12.4 million in TSLA stock over the past three months, which some read as a cautious signal on near-term performance.
Robotaxi revenue won’t be material to earnings until at least 2027. A potential SpaceX merger is seen as 12 to 18 months away at the earliest. Optimus timelines remain unclear.
Tesla’s Q2 earnings call kicks off Wednesday, with all eyes on what Elon Musk says about the road ahead.
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