TLDR
- RCL beat Q2 EPS estimates with $4.21 vs. $3.98 expected
- Full-year EPS guidance raised to $17.73–$17.87, up from $17.10–$17.50
- Stock fell over 6% in premarket despite the beat, partly due to a 19% run-up in the prior three months
- Annual revenue growth forecast trimmed to ~9% from ~10% due to geopolitical booking pressures
- Q2 fuel costs rose 27% to $355 million, though full-year fuel forecast was slightly lowered
Royal Caribbean beat Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit outlook — and the market still wasn’t impressed.
ROYAL CARIBBEAN $RCL Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $4.8B (Est. $4.82B) 🟡; +6% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $4.21 (Est. $3.98) 🟢; -4% YoY
🔹 Net Yields: +1.9% as-reported
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $1.83BRaises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Adj EPS: $17.73-$17.87 (Est. $17.3) 🟢; +14% YoY
🔹 Revenue:…— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) July 28, 2026
The cruise operator reported adjusted EPS of $4.21 for Q2, ahead of the $3.98 analyst consensus. Revenue came in at $4.83 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year and just above estimates of $4.82 billion.
RCL stock was down around 6.6% in premarket trading Tuesday, pointing to a price near $285.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., RCL
The stock had already jumped 7.6% in the two sessions before earnings as oil prices fell sharply. It has also gained 19% over the past three months heading into the print.
With that kind of run-up, investors were likely expecting something bigger.
The full-year EPS guidance was lifted to a range of $17.73–$17.87, up from the prior $17.10–$17.50. The company credited the Q2 beat and a stronger outlook for the back half of 2026.
But when you strip out the 23-cent Q2 beat, the full-year raise only implies modest improvement for the remainder of the year — not the knockout guidance bump some were hoping for.
Revenue Forecast Trimmed on Geopolitical Pressures
Royal Caribbean did cut its annual revenue growth forecast, now expecting about 9% growth versus the prior target of around 10%.
The company cited a “modest booking impact for select itineraries primarily due to prolonged geopolitical activity.” CFO Naftali Holtz said overall demand remained resilient, and that 2027 bookings were running ahead of historical levels — including on itineraries affected by geopolitical disruptions this year.
Fuel costs rose 27% year-over-year to $355 million in Q2, a direct effect of Middle East tensions. Royal Caribbean did, however, trim its full-year fuel expense forecast slightly to about $1.34 billion from $1.35 billion.
Where Things Stand vs. Rivals
Royal Caribbean has outperformed its biggest rivals so far in 2026. The stock is up more than 5% year-to-date, while Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) are both down around 10%.
Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham noted last week that cruise stocks were underperforming the broader market for the first time since the pandemic, but called the sector on a “positive long-term trajectory.”
BNP Paribas analyst Xian Siew holds a Buy rating on RCL with a $357 price target. He flagged last week that Royal Caribbean’s plans to develop a community center near its blocked Perfect Day Mexico destination could be a step toward getting that project back on track with the Mexican government.
Norwegian Cruise Line reports earnings on Thursday. Carnival is expected to report in the fall.
