TLDR
- ONON stock fell 22% after Q2 net sales of CHF 850.3 million missed Wall Street’s estimate of CHF 879.57 million.
- Wholesale channel growth slowed sharply to 4.8% globally, with Americas constant currency growth dropping to 13% from 17% in Q1.
- On Holding cut its full-year 2026 net sales growth outlook to the low-20% range, down from “at least 23%.”
- William Blair analyst Dylan Carden downgraded ONON to Hold from Buy, citing weaker earnings visibility and rising inflation pressure.
- Needham cut its price target from $45 to $37, though maintained a Buy rating, while the consensus average target sits at $53.42.
On Holding stock dropped 22% on Tuesday, with NYSE ONON trading down $7.30 to $31.48, sitting close to its one-year low of $30.11. The sell-off came after the company’s Q2 earnings report revealed a revenue miss and a cut to full-year guidance.
Q2 adjusted EPS came in at CHF 0.35, beating estimates by one cent. But that was about all investors had to cheer. Total net sales of CHF 850.3 million fell short of Wall Street’s expectation of CHF 879.57 million.
The miss was driven largely by the wholesale business. Global wholesale channel revenue growth slowed to just 4.8%. Management deliberately kept wholesale sell-in low to protect premium pricing, but that decision weighed directly on reported sales.
In the Americas, constant currency growth slowed to 13%, down from 17% in Q1. The U.S. market turned increasingly promotional, making it tougher to hold pricing on everyday running shoes.
On Holding also trimmed its full-year 2026 constant currency net sales growth outlook to the low-20% range. That is down from earlier guidance of “at least 23%.” The updated revenue midpoint came in below analyst projections.
Analyst Downgrades on Weaker Visibility
William Blair analyst Dylan Carden cut his rating on ONON to Hold from Buy. Carden acknowledged On’s track record of product-led growth, which had been the foundation of his bullish view. But he flagged worsening inflation pressure across apparel and footwear and a rise in promotional activity in lifestyle products.
He said On’s decision to hold firm on pricing protects the brand but makes wholesale sales over the next 12 months harder to forecast. With earnings visibility weaker and growth risks building, he saw a downgrade as the right call.
Carden currently ranks 2,201 out of 12,465 analysts tracked by TipRanks, with a 52% success rate and an average return of 8.7% per rating over a one-year period.
Needham also moved, cutting its price target from $45 to $37, while holding its Buy rating. That $37 target implies around 17.5% upside from Tuesday’s close.
Where Analysts Stand Now
Despite the day’s damage, most analysts have not abandoned the stock. ONON carries a Moderate Buy consensus from MarketBeat, with two Strong Buy ratings, 15 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell. The average price target sits at $53.42.
TipRanks data shows a Strong Buy consensus based on 17 Buys, two Holds, and one Sell over the past three months. That average target of $50.53 implies over 63% upside from current levels.
On the insider side, CEO Caspar Felix Coppetti bought 60,000 shares at $36.64 in May, and insider Olivier Bernhard also picked up 60,000 shares at $36.63. Total insider buying over the past three months reached 180,000 shares worth roughly $6.6 million.
Trading volume on Tuesday hit 19.78 million shares, well above the average of 5.84 million. The stock’s one-year high stands at $52.20.
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