TLDR
- 79% of prediction market users reported losing money in the past year, per a new US survey
- 27% lost more than $500, and 9% lost over $1,000
- 51% used borrowed funds such as credit cards or loans to place bets
- Among borrowers, the loss rate climbed to 88% vs 69% for non-borrowers
- 53% joined platforms to earn extra income, not for entertainment
Nearly four in five prediction market users lost money last year, according to a new survey, as more than half funded their bets with borrowed money.
The findings come from BadCredit.org, which surveyed 1,000 US adults. Of those, 15% said they had used platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, or PredictIt.
Among that user group, 79% reported losses during the previous year. More than one quarter lost over $500, and 9% said their losses exceeded $1,000. Only 21% reported no losses at all.
Borrowers Lost at a Higher Rate
The loss rate was worse among users who borrowed money to trade. Of the 51% who used credit cards, personal loans, or other forms of debt, 88% reported losing money.
That compares to a 69% loss rate among users who did not borrow.
Consumer finance expert Erica Sandberg warned that borrowing to bet adds repayment costs on top of already uncertain outcomes. Borrowers can end up owing interest even after losing their original stake.
“Although tempting, borrowing money to place a bet is a universally bad idea,” Sandberg said.
The survey relied on self-reported responses and did not verify results against platform transaction records.
Many Users Turned to Prediction Markets for Income
Financial need was the top reason users gave for joining these platforms.
Forty-four percent said they wanted to earn extra income, while 9% said they were struggling financially. Together, 53% cited income-related reasons for signing up.
That was nearly double the 27% who joined for entertainment or curiosity.
Across the full survey sample, 30% believed prediction markets could realistically improve their financial situation. Men held that belief more often than women, at 37% versus 25%.
Usage was also higher among men. Around 24% of men said they had tried a prediction market platform, compared to 9% of women.
Separate academic research has found that profits tend to concentrate among a small number of accounts. A study of 1.72 million Polymarket accounts found that less than 3.5% of accounts captured more than 30% of total gains.
Record Volume, Growing Scrutiny
These loss figures come as the industry posts record trading numbers.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US combined for $50.59 billion in trading volume in July, up 7.8% from June.
Kalshi led with $37.7 billion. Polymarket’s US and international venues combined for $12.9 billion.
Those figures reflect notional trading volume, not customer deposits or verified losses.
The growth has drawn attention from regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees federally registered platforms, but several states argue that sports-linked contracts require local gambling licenses.
In July, the US House Agriculture Committee held a hearing focused on customer protection and market integrity.
The CFTC also warned platforms against presenting contracts using American-style gambling odds formats.
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