TLDR
- S&P 500 futures traded near flat after a third straight weekly gain
- Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% as investors moved into tech stocks
- Retail giants Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot report earnings this week
- Odds of a September Fed rate hike fell to below one-third
- The VIX fear gauge dropped to its lowest level of 2026 on Friday
U.S. stock futures showed little movement Monday morning as Wall Street entered what is expected to be a quiet week dominated by retail earnings and Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
S&P 500 futures were near the flat line after the index completed its third consecutive weekly gain. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, driven by investors moving into tech stocks. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped around 72 points, or 0.1%.
Retail Earnings in Focus
The biggest events on this week’s calendar are earnings from major retailers. Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot are all set to report quarterly results.
These reports will give investors a clearer picture of how American consumers are spending during the back-to-school season. Retail earnings are often seen as a health check on the broader economy.
Analysts will look closely at what retailers say about pricing, demand, and foot traffic. Any surprises could move individual stocks and ripple across the market.
The Fed minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due Wednesday. Investors will read them carefully for clues about the central bank’s next steps on interest rates.
Traders have pulled back expectations for a September rate hike. The odds of a hike at the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting now sit at below one-third, according to market pricing.
Consumer and producer price inflation both cooled in July. That data helped ease concerns about further rate increases and contributed to the S&P 500’s recent winning streak.
VIX Hits 2026 Low as Calm Holds
The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, dropped to its lowest point of 2026 on Friday. That signals traders are not expecting major turbulence in the near term.
Even ongoing tensions in the Middle East have not rattled markets much. A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was set to expire Monday, but oil prices were still moving lower in early trading.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.3% to around $82.19 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, edged up to $88 per barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 4.68% on Monday. The U.S. dollar fell 0.3% against a basket of major currencies.
Financial conditions have tightened slightly in recent weeks, with both the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising heading into the weekend.
Markets are expected to remain calm until Nvidia reports its earnings next Wednesday, which could be the next major catalyst for stocks.
Until then, investors are watching retail results and Fed commentary for any shift in the economic picture.
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