TLDR
- Nike closed at $39.09 on Monday, down 4%, its lowest close since 2014
- The stock is now 78% below its November 2021 all-time high of $177.51
- China revenue fell 11% year-on-year, with direct online sales in China down 29%
- JPMorgan cut NKE to “underweight” with a $40 price target earlier this month
- Wall Street’s average one-year price target sits at $50.66; next earnings are September 29
Nike closed at $39.09 on Monday, down 4%, hitting its lowest level since September 2014. The stock has now lost roughly 78% from its all-time high of $177.51 reached in November 2021.
The latest leg down was partly triggered by On Holding’s second-quarter revenue miss. The Swiss sportswear maker reported $1.076 billion, below the $1.11 billion forecast, raising concerns about broader demand across the premium sneaker market.
But Nike’s problems run deeper than one competitor’s earnings miss.
China remains the core issue. Nike’s Greater China revenue for fiscal 2026 fell 11% year-on-year to $5.85 billion. Strip out currency effects and the drop reaches 13%. Direct online sales in China fell 29%, shoe sales dropped 14%, and Greater China operating profit declined 20% to $1.28 billion.
Local brands like Anta Sports and Li-Ning have been picking up market share, and the premium once attached to U.S. brands in China has been fading.
DTC Strategy Adds to the Pressure
Nike’s direct-to-consumer push has also backfired. Nike Direct revenue fell 6% and brand digital revenue dropped 12%, even as wholesale revenue rose 6%. The strategy built to boost margins ended up hurting overall growth instead.
For the full fiscal fourth quarter, revenue fell about 1% to $11.0 billion. Digital sales dropped 26%, and Nike is guiding for first-quarter revenue to fall by a low to mid single-digit percentage. Earnings growth is expected to stay flat once tariff recovery benefits fade.
Wall Street is growing impatient. JPMorgan cut its rating on NKE to “underweight” from “neutral” earlier this month, lowering its price target to $40 from $47. Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti said there are “no hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future” and added that there is little reason to expand the P/E ratio from current levels.
What the Bulls Are Hanging On
CEO Elliott Hill has been working to repair wholesale relationships after years of the aggressive DTC strategy. He recently replaced Nike’s CFO as part of a broader shake-up.
A Stocktwits poll found 68% of investors picked Nike over Lululemon as the stronger turnaround bet, even with both stocks near multi-year lows.
Wall Street’s average one-year price target sits at $50.66, which would represent real upside from current levels. NKE carries a forward dividend yield of 4.03% and a P/E ratio near 19.35.
Hill himself acknowledged the frustration: “I’m so tired, and I know you are too, of talking about fixing this business.”
LeBron James, a long-time Nike endorser, recently said the brand needs “to go back to its roots” to reconnect with local communities and younger consumers.
Nike’s next earnings report is scheduled for September 29, 2026.
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