TLDR
- SMCI fell around 3% Tuesday, pulling back after a nearly 60% surge over the past month
- Q4 FY26 EPS beat at $1.70 vs. 62-cent estimate, but revenue of $11.12B missed the $12.33B target
- Barclays and Mizuho both raised price targets but kept Hold ratings
- Gross margin expanded to 17.6% in Q4, but is expected to drop sharply to 10.6% in Q1 FY27
- Wall Street consensus is Hold, with an average price target of $40.85
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slid around 3% on Tuesday, giving back some of its recent gains after a sharp run-up and mixed analyst reactions to its latest quarterly results.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
The stock was trading at $37.13 at the time of writing, down 3.03% on the day. SMCI is still up 28% year-to-date.
Tuesday’s drop followed a nearly 60% rally over the past month. That kind of move tends to attract sellers, and today was no different.
Broader market pressure added fuel to the pullback. News that President Trump ruled out extending the 60-day ceasefire framework with Iran reignited geopolitical tensions, pushed oil prices higher, and weighed on equities broadly.
SMCI’s Q4 FY26 results were a mixed bag. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.70, well ahead of the 62-cent Street estimate. Revenue, however, landed at $11.12 billion, below the $12.33 billion forecast.
Management said delays were tied to data-center readiness issues, including power provisioning, liquid cooling setup, and networking, rather than a demand problem.
The company reported a record backlog with over $60 billion in new Q4 orders. It also issued a Q1 FY27 revenue guide of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion and a fiscal 2027 revenue target of $65 billion to $72 billion.
Gross margin was a bright spot in Q4, expanding to 17.6% against prior guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%.
Analysts Raise Targets but Hold the Line
Several analysts nudged up their price targets after the print, but none turned bullish.
Barclays analyst Tim Long raised his target to $39 from $38, keeping a Hold. He flagged uncertainty around the $60 billion in new orders, saying details and visibility remain unclear.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh lifted his target slightly to $35 from $34, also maintaining a Hold. He flagged a sharp expected gross margin drop in Q1 FY27, down roughly 700 basis points sequentially to 10.6%, driven by product mix shifting back toward AI servers.
Rakesh cited concerns about growing competition from Dell and others, and the possibility that hyperscalers may shift toward custom AI chips.
Northland’s Nehal Chokshi raised his target more aggressively, to $43 from $36, while also holding a neutral stance. He pointed to corporate governance concerns, specifically around the company’s decision to bring back co-founder Wally Liaw after he stepped down in 2018 amid prior issues with sales and accounting practices.
Wall Street’s Overall View
The Street consensus sits at Hold, based on 11 Holds, three Buys, and two Sells. The average price target of $40.85 implies about 9.2% upside from current levels.
On the technical side, the stock remains above its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, but a “death cross” that formed in December 2025 continues to hang over the longer-term setup.
Benzinga Edge rates SMCI as Bullish on Quality (91.19) and Value (90/100), with Growth also supportive at 79.84.
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