TLDR
- BABA rose 2.76% Tuesday to close at $128.15, ahead of fiscal Q1 2027 earnings on Thursday, August 20.
- Wall Street expects revenue of RMB 268.5 billion ($38.63 billion), up 8% year-over-year, but adjusted EPS is forecast to drop 27%.
- Alipay launched a new all-in-one AI platform for businesses, boosting sentiment; BABA stock rose as much as 5% in Hong Kong on the news.
- Serenity Capital Management initiated a $6.72 billion position in BABA, making it the fund’s 11th-largest holding.
- Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $182.33, implying roughly 42% upside.
Alibaba (BABA) stock closed at $128.15 on Tuesday, up 2.76%, as investors positioned ahead of the company’s fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings report due Thursday morning, August 20. Results cover the quarter ending June 30, 2026. Management will host a conference call at 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, BABA
Wall Street is forecasting total revenue of RMB 268.5 billion ($38.63 billion), representing 8% year-over-year growth. But heavy spending on AI infrastructure and consumer subsidies is expected to take a toll on the bottom line.
Adjusted earnings per ADS are projected to fall roughly 27% year-over-year to RMB 10.8. Non-GAAP net income is forecast to drop nearly 28% to RMB 25.47 billion.
Cloud Growth Remains a Bright Spot
Alibaba Cloud is one of the key numbers investors will watch Thursday. In the prior March quarter, external cloud revenue grew 40%, while AI-related product revenue posted its 11th straight quarter of triple-digit growth.
Adjusted EBITA for the cloud segment rose 57% to RMB 3.80 billion in that quarter. Alibaba has pledged at least RMB 380 billion ($53 billion) over three years toward AI and cloud infrastructure.
The company’s open-source Qwen AI models have also gained ground globally. Hugging Face data showed Qwen-based model derivatives hit 151,448 downloads, outpacing Meta’s Llama footprint by 2.6 times. Alibaba’s Qwen models reportedly surpassed 3 billion total downloads in six months.
Quick-Commerce Losses Are Still a Concern
The other side of the ledger is less clean. Alibaba integrated quick-commerce into Taobao to compete with Meituan and JD.com, but delivery subsidies and user acquisition costs have weighed heavily on margins.
In the March quarter, operating results swung to a loss of RMB 848 million. Free cash flow turned negative at RMB 17.30 billion, driven by capital expenditures of RMB 26.89 billion. Investors will be watching Thursday for signs that those losses narrowed.
Sentiment got a lift Tuesday when Ant Group, one-third owned by Alibaba, announced that Alipay launched a new all-in-one AI platform for businesses. Ant Group CEO Cyril Han said the platform will support AI-powered services and agentic commerce.
BABA rose as much as 5% in Hong Kong following the announcement. The Alipay platform follows the June debut of Ah Bao, an AI agent interface that lets users pay bills, order coffee, and find EV charging stations.
Adding to the positive tone, Serenity Capital Management initiated a new $6.72 billion position in BABA during Q2, picking up 70,000 ADS. The stock now represents 2% of the fund’s portfolio and is its 11th-largest holding.
Alibaba also agreed to sell its Lingxi Games unit to Trustar Capital for more than $2 billion, freeing up capital for AI and cloud investment.
The stock’s 52-week range is $91.99 to $192.67. Its 50-day moving average sits at $113.16, and the 200-day moving average is $128.97. BABA carries a Strong Buy consensus from seven analysts over the past three months, with an average price target of $182.33.
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