TLDR
- Bernstein expects Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029 in its base case
- A bull case scenario puts Bitcoin at $500,000 in 2029 and $1 million by 2033
- Rising government debt and currency debasement are key drivers behind the bullish outlook
- Bernstein cut its Strategy price target from $450 to $350, citing equity dilution
- BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF and gold ETFs are re-entering the top 10 most-traded ETFs
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani published a note to clients forecasting Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by end of 2026. They then see it climbing to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027.
Bernstein Sees Bitcoin at $150K by Mid-2027, Cuts Strategy Price Target to $350
Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to reach roughly $125k by the end of 2026, a new high of $150k by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of around $300k in 2029 under their base case.
If currency debasement… pic.twitter.com/9kyPs8rpQP
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 26, 2026
The firm’s base case projects a cycle peak of around $300,000 in 2029. Their longer-term forecast puts Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2033.
Bernstein’s model values Bitcoin as a multiple of the marginal cost of production. The analysts believe the cryptocurrency is following its historical four-year cycle.
The firm points to the end of a 40-year era of declining interest rates as a key driver. U.S. sovereign debt has hit $40 trillion, and Bernstein believes policymakers will favor currency debasement over fiscal tightening.
That shift, they argue, increases demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Around 59% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved in the past 12 months.
Bitcoin has gained 28% over the past 10 days after falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak. Bernstein says spot ETF participation and corporate treasury buying may have cushioned that decline compared to previous cycles.
The Bull Case and ETF Activity
If institutional capital chases Bitcoin more aggressively, Bernstein sees a faster timeline. Under that scenario, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and peak at $500,000 in 2029.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the “debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania.” BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF and the SPDR gold ETF have returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs, pushing out some semiconductor funds.
BlackRock has also hit $5 billion in tax-deferred Bitcoin-to-ETF swaps, suggesting large holders have moved Bitcoin holdings into the ETF.
Strategy Price Target Cut
Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Strategy but lowered its price target from $450 to $350. The firm cited its updated Bitcoin cycle outlook and accelerated equity dilution.
Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin, roughly 4% of total supply. Bernstein said the company has around 3.9 years of cash coverage for interest and preferred dividend obligations.
The revised $350 target still represents 176% upside from Strategy’s recent closing price of $126.83. Bernstein added that a recovery in Strategy’s preferred stock toward $100 could push the company to buy more Bitcoin.
Strategy’s stock dropped more than 2% in premarket trading. Bitcoin futures open interest also fell 2.7% to $54.80 billion in the last 24 hours, pointing to caution in the derivatives market.
