TLDR
- Russia’s regulated crypto market is forecast to process up to 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) in year one
- Only around 20% of Russia’s current crypto activity is expected to move to regulated exchanges
- Non-qualified investors face a 300,000 ruble ($3,800) annual purchase cap per intermediary
- Only Bitcoin, Ether and USDT are approved for trading on official Russian exchanges
- Existing crypto exchanges have until July 1, 2027 to register under the new licensing rules
Russia has launched a regulated cryptocurrency trading framework, with Sberbank forecasting the new legal market could process up to $46.43 billion in its first year.
Russia’s Regulated Crypto Trading Volume Expected to Exceed $46 Billion in First Year
According to Bitcoin News, Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said regulated Russian exchanges are expected to record at least $46.43 billion in crypto trading volume during the first year,… pic.twitter.com/ud3XYsHR2O
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 31, 2026
The Bank of Russia’s new rules took effect on September 1, 2026, allowing investors to buy crypto through approved brokers, exchanges and asset managers.
Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov shared the forecast with Russian news agency TASS, drawing on Finance Ministry data showing Russia’s daily crypto transactions currently total around 50 billion rubles.
That puts Russia’s annual crypto volume at roughly 18 trillion rubles. Popov expects only about 20% of that to shift onto regulated exchanges during the first year.
What the Numbers Actually Mean
The forecast range of 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles should be treated as an estimate, not a guaranteed floor. TASS noted that first-year volume was “not expected to exceed” 4 trillion rubles.
Looking further ahead, Sberbank projects regulated trading could rise to between 4.75 and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, then reach around 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029.
Popov acknowledged that much crypto activity will stay outside the regulated system. Unregistered exchange services are expected to retain a large share of Russia’s crypto market.
Who Can Trade and What They Can Buy
Both qualified and non-qualified investors can participate, but with different rules.
Non-qualified investors must pass a knowledge test before buying any cryptocurrency. They can spend no more than 300,000 rubles, about $3,800, per year through each licensed intermediary.
Qualified investors also need to complete testing but face no monetary cap. They are expected to get access to a broader range of assets than regular retail investors.
Only three cryptocurrencies are currently approved for trading on official Russian exchanges: Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT. The Bank of Russia selected them based on market capitalization, trading volume and overseas price history.
Other cryptocurrencies are not available through regulated venues unless they meet the central bank’s standards. This could push demand for altcoins toward unregistered platforms.
Existing crypto exchange providers can keep operating during a transition period but must register by July 1, 2027. The delay means the regulated market will not be fully built out when it opens.
Sberbank itself plans to launch crypto trading, custody and digital-depository services by December 1, 2026. The bank has not yet confirmed which assets it will support or what fees it will charge.
No verified market movement in Bitcoin, Ether or USDT has been directly linked to SberCIB’s forecast.
