TLDR
- Bernstein analysts estimate SpaceX could need $50B to $130B to build a standalone terrestrial mobile network, including spectrum costs.
- The base case scenario is a “National” network build costing around $70B with 57,000 macro sites over roughly eight years.
- SpaceX plans to begin Starship launches of its Mobile V2 satellite constellation in mid-2027.
- Acquiring low-band spectrum from Grain could cut required tower sites by about 30%.
- Bernstein still sees a partnership as the most likely outcome for SpaceX’s mobile business.
SpaceX could need between $50 billion and $130 billion to build a standalone terrestrial mobile network for its direct-to-device business, according to new analysis from Bernstein.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The estimate includes spectrum costs. Excluding spectrum, the build would run roughly $15 billion to $80 billion, depending on network design.
Bernstein analysts led by Douglas Harned described the direct-to-device mobile business as “the one business that we have viewed as the most difficult” within SpaceX’s broader strategy.
That said, the team remains upbeat on SpaceX overall. They cited launch, orbital data centers, and Starlink broadband as the foundation of their positive outlook on the stock.
What the Cost Range Depends On
The wide cost range comes down to two decisions. First, how aggressively SpaceX wants to compete with existing carriers on network quality. Second, whether the company picks up 10 MHz of low-band spectrum that Grain plans to auction.
Bernstein modeled six scenarios, ranging from a bare-bones “Metro” network covering around 70% of the population to a “Premium” build approaching the quality of existing telecom carriers.
A middle “National” scenario, compared to Sprint’s historical network, was flagged as potentially viable “at the right price point.”
The firm’s base case is a National build that includes Grain’s spectrum. That scenario clocks in at around $70 billion and 57,000 macro sites built over roughly eight years.
Acquiring low-band spectrum like Grain’s could reduce the number of required sites by about 30%. Bernstein called Grain “the only obviously available low band spectrum.”
Elon Musk Pushes Back
Elon Musk posted “not true” on X in response to a Bloomberg report suggesting SpaceX was eyeing the Grain spectrum.
Bernstein, however, believes “a Grain spectrum acquisition is not off the table,” despite Musk’s denial.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), a competitor in the direct-to-device space, has also shown interest in Grain’s spectrum. ASTS received a 30-day special temporary FCC approval in August to test supplementary coverage using it.
ASTS stock was down 1.65% at the time of writing. SPCX was up 0.62%.
SpaceX plans to start Starship launches of its Mobile V2 satellite constellation in mid-2027.
Bernstein said it still views a partnership as the most likely path forward for SpaceX’s mobile unit. But the team noted that “the company continues to indicate a terrestrial buildout is possible,” prompting the detailed cost breakdown given growing investor questions around potential telecom and tower spending.
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