TLDR
- Bernstein rates SpaceX Outperform with a $248 price target, implying 74% upside from current levels.
- SpaceX AI revenue is forecast to jump from $24.6 billion in 2026 to $115.1 billion in 2027.
- SpaceX’s move into power turbine blade manufacturing rattled several sector stocks this week.
- Wall Street analysts largely dismissed the threat to incumbent casters, citing 4+ years to ramp up.
- Howmet Aerospace drew an upside catalyst watch from Citi and became Deutsche Bank’s top aerospace supplier pick.
SpaceX stock is trading at $141.04, down 0.8% on Wednesday, even as the broader market edges higher. The S&P 500 is up 0.55% and the Dow is up 0.77%.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
It has been a busy week for Elon Musk’s company. SpaceX stock is up around 25% over the past month, and the news flow shows no signs of slowing down.
Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned has an Outperform rating on SpaceX with a $248 price target. That implies roughly 74% upside from current levels. Harned expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to jump from $24.6 billion in 2026 to $115.1 billion in 2027, making AI the biggest slice of the company’s revenue mix.
Bernstein sees total revenue hitting $46.4 billion in 2026 and $150.4 billion in 2027. Most of that growth is driven by AI.
The firm’s thesis goes beyond rockets. Bernstein sees orbital data centers as a major long-term growth driver. SpaceX plans to build Starbase Louisiana on 125,000 acres, with construction starting in 2027 and the first Starship launch from the site targeted for 2029. The facility is expected to support at least 10 launchpads and eventually more than 30 Starship flights per day.
SpaceX also recently completed its acquisition of Cursor, adding coding tools to its Grok AI platform. Bernstein thinks this could open up AI services as a revenue stream, not just computing capacity.
Starlink and Terafab Add to the Growth Story
Bernstein forecasts Starlink connectivity revenue of $17.0 billion in 2026 and $27.7 billion in 2027, reaching $205.9 billion by 2031. The airline segment is expanding too, with 46 airlines now signed up. Qatar Airways expanded its rollout in August and Royal Air Maroc recently joined.
SpaceX’s planned Terafab chip facility in Texas is another piece of the puzzle. The initial phase alone is expected to require around $16.8 billion in capital expenditure.
The average Wall Street price target on SpaceX sits at $231.63, implying 64% upside. The consensus is a Moderate Buy, based on 25 Buys, five Holds, and three Sells since the IPO.
Power Sector Stocks Feel the Pressure
SpaceX’s comments about getting into turbine blade manufacturing sent shockwaves through the power equipment sector. Howmet Aerospace fell around 4% for the week coming into Wednesday. GE Vernova and Siemens Energy dropped around 3% and 6%, respectively. Caterpillar and Cummins also slipped.
Wall Street pushed back on the panic. Citi put an upside catalyst watch on Howmet, calling the selloff overdone. Deutsche Bank named Howmet its top aerospace supplier pick with 35% upside. Jefferies said it would take four years or more for any new entrant to ramp up single-crystal casting in a meaningful way.
22V Research noted that SpaceX’s more likely near-term path is developing spare parts for its own power fleet rather than taking on established casters directly. SpaceX bought APR Energy earlier this year, which deploys power-generating equipment and buys turbines from companies like GE Vernova.
Howmet stock was still down 1.2% on Wednesday despite the analyst support.
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