TLDR
- JPMorgan says Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if ETF hedging demand declines.
- Bitcoin ETFs have recovered about half of their 2026 outflows, while gold ETFs have fully recovered theirs.
- Short interest in BlackRock’s IBIT remains near its highest level this year.
- GLD short interest remains below its historical average, showing lower hedging demand around gold.
- IBIT also has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD.
JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin could gain more support than gold if investors reduce hedging around exchange-traded funds. The bank sees a wider gap between Bitcoin and gold positioning after recent market pressure. Both assets attracted ETF inflows after the Federal Reserve meeting in late July, but demand has moved differently since then. JPMorgan said that gap could matter if investors unwind hedges, because closing defensive positions may add support without stronger ETF demand.
JPMorgan Sees More Room for Bitcoin Support
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said gold ETFs have recovered all their earlier 2026 outflows. Bitcoin ETFs have recovered about half. JPMorgan said the difference leaves Bitcoin with more room to regain demand if market conditions improve.
The bank also noted that futures positioning remains high in both assets. This suggests large investors still maintain exposure to Bitcoin and gold despite weaker demand in recent sessions.
JPMorgan pointed to short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT. Short interest remains near its highest level this year. By comparison, short interest in SPDR Gold Shares, or GLD, remains below its historical average.
Options data shows a similar pattern. IBIT has a higher put-to-call open interest ratio than GLD. JPMorgan said that difference shows investors currently use more downside protection around Bitcoin than gold.
ETF Flows Follow Senate Setback
The bank said the trade favoring scarce assets weakened as inflation-adjusted bond yields rose. The Senate also failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15 in a 49-50 cloture vote.
Recent Bitcoin ETF coverage showed US spot funds recorded $450.4 million in net outflows on September 15. Fidelity’s FBTC led withdrawals, while BlackRock’s IBIT also posted heavy outflows. The move followed renewed selling pressure across the crypto market.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs could eventually hold three times more assets than gold ETFs. He linked that view to younger investors gaining more wealth and institutions becoming more comfortable with Bitcoin.
Balchunas said institutions still favor gold because Bitcoin remains more volatile and often trades alongside technology stocks. He said lower volatility and weaker stock-market correlation could change that balance over time. JPMorgan’s current positioning data shows Bitcoin still carries heavier hedging, which could ease if investor demand strengthens.
