TLDR
- Micron stock rose about 3% Monday as investors looked ahead to its Sept. 30 earnings report.
- Stifel expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $50.78 billion, up 22% from the prior quarter.
- Quarter-over-quarter revenue growth is expected to slow to about 11% in the current quarter.
- Stifel says slower shipment growth could keep DRAM supply tight, supporting pricing and margins.
- The firm maintained a Buy rating and $1,500 price target on Micron.
Micron (MU) stock rose about 3% Monday as investors looked ahead to the memory chipmaker’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Sept. 30. The stock traded above $1,030 during the session after ending Friday at $1,015.80.
The latest move follows a strong run for Micron, with the stock up more than 500% over the past 12 months. Stifel says the next phase of growth may be slower, but that could still support strong pricing and profit margins.
Analyst Brian Chin expects Micron to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $50.78 billion, representing about 22% sequential growth. He expects growth to slow to roughly 11% in the following quarter.
That slowdown is not being driven by weak demand. Stifel argues that Micron and other memory producers simply cannot increase shipments fast enough to fully meet current demand.
Tight DRAM Supply Could Support Pricing
Stifel expects DRAM bit shipments to grow between 15% and 20% in calendar 2027. That would be below the mid-to-high 20% growth rate expected for 2026.
Chin estimates that DRAM shipments would need to increase by around 40% to 50% next year to fully close the gap between supply and demand. That level of supply growth appears difficult because of cleanroom timing and equipment constraints.
If supply remains tight, memory prices could stay elevated even as shipment growth slows. That could help Micron maintain stronger gross margins and earnings than investors might normally expect during a slower volume-growth period.
Stifel also expects Micron’s upcoming results and guidance to come in above both its own estimates and Wall Street consensus. The firm cautioned that the degree of upside may be smaller than in recent quarters.
Part of that reflects pricing terms in longer-term customer agreements. Some contracts include collar-based pricing, which can reduce the size of short-term revenue swings.
Sept. 30 Earnings Become the Next Test
Micron officially reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Sept. 30. The company will hold its earnings call at 2:30 p.m. Mountain time.
The company is coming off a record third quarter in which revenue reached $41.46 billion, up from $23.86 billion in the prior quarter. Adjusted EPS came in at $25.11.
Stifel maintained a Buy rating and $1,500 price target on Micron. Other analysts also remain positive, with Investing.com currently showing an average 12-month target above $1,500 across its analyst sample.
The main investor caveat is that Micron has already had a very strong run, leaving expectations high. Any sign that memory pricing, AI demand or margins are weakening faster than expected could pressure the stock.
Supply tightness can also cut both ways. While limited supply can support pricing, it can restrict unit growth and leave Micron unable to fully capture available demand.
For now, the next confirmed catalyst is the Sept. 30 earnings report. Investors will be watching revenue growth, DRAM pricing, shipment constraints and management’s outlook for fiscal 2027.
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