TLDR
- Solana trades near $117 after a 21% weekly gain but remains 44% down over the past year.
- SOL needs a 152% rally to reclaim its $295 all-time high from January 2025.
- Daily network fees have dropped 97%, from $33 million to about $1 million.
- Solana spot ETFs logged $28.87 million in net inflows on September 22, pushing total inflows to $1.47 billion.
- Analysts are watching the $119-$121 resistance zone, with the Alpenglow upgrade due September 28.
Solana is trading at $116.87 after climbing 21% over the past week. The token is still down 44% over the last twelve months. To return to its all-time high of $295, set in January 2025, SOL would need to rise another 152%.
That earlier peak came during a wave of memecoin trading, sparked in part by the TRUMP token launch. Daily network fees hit $33 million at the time. Today those fees sit near $1 million, a drop of about 97%.
Solana also has more tokens in circulation now than it did at its peak. About 587 million SOL exist today. Reaching $295 again would give the network a valuation near $173 billion, above its previous high of roughly $140 billion.
New Demand Sources Remain Small
Institutional funds are one source of fresh buying. U.S. spot Solana ETFs held about $1.42 billion in assets as of September 17, after twelve straight weeks of inflows.
On September 22 alone, the funds pulled in $28.87 million in net inflows, according to SoSoValue. That brought cumulative inflows to $1.47 billion, with total net assets at $1.77 billion.
Tokenized stocks are a second source of demand. Solana supports about $465 million in these assets, more than any other blockchain. The SEC granted trading venues a five-year exemption for this activity on September 17.
Analyst SatoshiOwl pointed to a recent price move that matched his earlier forecast. He wrote: “Called it. Yesterday I said $SOL looked ready for a pullback into the $113–114 zone before the next leg up. And that’s EXACTLY what happened. #SOL just wicked straight into that area and bounced.” He added he’s now watching $120 first, then $124 if support holds.
Called it. 🎯
Yesterday I said $SOL looked ready for a pullback into the $113–114 zone before the next leg up.
And that’s EXACTLY what happened.#SOL just wicked straight into that area and bounced. 👀
Now I’m looking for the next move higher — $120 first, then $124+ if this… https://t.co/mr1OQeGu3O pic.twitter.com/8dUABqqZ7U
— SatoshiOwl (@SatoshiOwl) September 23, 2026
Resistance Levels and Technical Readings
SOL faces resistance between $119 and $121. CoinGlass liquidation data shows a dense cluster of positions between $116.80 and $117.30, close to the current price.
A break above $120 could trigger liquidations toward $121 to $123, according to the heatmap. A drop below $110 would shift the near-term outlook lower.
Analyst Crypto Patel noted that SOL has already doubled from his earlier accumulation range of $60 to $67, rising past $120 before pulling back to current levels. He said his longer-term target of $500 to $1,000 remains unchanged even after the pullback, though he flagged a possible medium-term drop toward $50.
$SOL Just Doubled From My Entry Zone But I’m Still Targeting $500-$1000#SOL JUST DID IT. From The $60-$67 Accumulation Zone To $120.
That’s Already A 100%+ Move From Our Entry Zone.Back In October 2025, I Told You:
SOL/USDT Could Crash Under $70-$50
Long-Term $500-$1000 Was… https://t.co/5pVuTqxZAF pic.twitter.com/eYvvnWbG2v— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) September 23, 2026
The daily RSI reading sits near 70, suggesting the token may be overextended after its rapid climb. Analyst Redlion said the setup looks constructive as buyers defend the $110 to $111 support zone.
Redlion added that a clean break above $121 could open the door to $123 or higher. He said a move back below $110 would turn the outlook bearish again.
Moving averages currently sit below the spot price. The 20-day EMA is at $106.76, the 50-day at $97.82, the 100-day at $91.22, and the 200-day at $93.37.
The MACD line reads 5.49, above its signal line of 4.31, with a positive histogram of 1.19. Futures volume fell 19.11% to $9.78 billion, while open interest dropped 1.41% to $7.13 billion.
The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled for September 28 and aims to cut transaction settlement times to about 150 milliseconds. SOL’s next close needs to clear $124, matching its December 31, 2025 level, before it can test the $149 to $150 zone from January 2026.
