TLDR
- Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were little changed Wednesday ahead of the PCE inflation report.
- Treasury yields hit multidecade highs, with the 30-year topping 5.6% and the 10-year near 5.3%.
- Odds of an October Fed rate hike fell to about 49%, down from 71% earlier in the week.
- New York Fed President John Williams said there is “no need for urgency” on rate hikes.
- Oil prices held in the mid-$90 range as the war in Iran continued into its seventh month.
US stock futures held steady on Wednesday morning. Traders were waiting for a fresh inflation report before making bigger moves.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.4%. S&P 500 futures added roughly 0.2%. Nasdaq-100 futures traded near flat, up about 0.2%.
The calm follows a rough session on Tuesday. Stocks fell as bond yields climbed to levels not seen in decades.
Bond Yields Reach Multidecade Highs
The 30-year Treasury bond yield crossed 5.6% on Tuesday. That is the highest level since June 2002.
The 10-year yield also climbed. It reached a fresh 2007 high near 5.3%.
BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises above 5.60% for the first time since June 2002.
That’s another +36 basis points this month alone.
8% mortgages will arrive next week. pic.twitter.com/Mn3h4wRHLb
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 29, 2026
These yield increases pressured stocks lower. The Dow dropped more than 100 points. The S&P 500 slid 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%.
Oil prices actually fell on the same day. Crude oil futures stabilized Wednesday in the mid-$90-per-barrel range.
The war in Iran has now stretched into its seventh month. That conflict continues to keep energy markets on edge.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said stocks are “trying to hang in there.” He added that tighter financial conditions are “emboldening the bears and lifting interest in downside hedges.”
Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop Sharply
Traders had been betting on a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Those odds have now dropped fast.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 49% chance of a quarter-point hike next month. That is down from 71% just a day earlier.
New York Fed President John Williams helped shift that view. He said late Tuesday there is “no need for urgency” to raise rates in October.
Williams added the Fed has “time to gather more information” before deciding.
All eyes are now on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, due out Wednesday.
Economists expect the core reading, which excludes food and energy, to stay flat at 3.3% year over year. A separate estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones sees the headline monthly gain at 0.3%, putting the annual rate near 3.7%.
Earnings are also in focus. Micron reports results after the bell, offering a look at the memory and AI chip market.
Conagra Brands reports before the opening bell.
Global markets showed mixed results overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.94%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.48%.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.74% in morning trading. The UK’s FTSE 100 and Italy’s FTSE MIB both gained 0.76%.
Wednesday marks the last trading day of September and the third quarter. Performance has been mixed for both periods.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Dow are on track for losses. The Nasdaq is up more than 1%. For the quarter, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 2%, while the Dow is down nearly 2%.
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