TLDR
- Spot gold traded near $4,180 an ounce on Friday, little changed as markets awaited U.S. jobs data.
- Gold is on track for a second straight weekly decline, down about 2.5% this week.
- The U.S. Dollar Index stayed near a 17-month high, making gold pricier for foreign buyers.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002 before easing slightly.
- Traders now see just a 26-27% chance of an October Fed rate hike, down from around 70% a week ago.
Gold prices were little changed on Friday as traders waited for the September U.S. jobs report. Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,179.65 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $4,210.15.
The metal is on track for a second straight weekly drop. It has fallen about 2.5% so far this week.
A stronger dollar and higher bond yields have made gold less attractive this week. Gold does not pay interest, so rising yields often pull investors toward bonds instead.
Dollar and Yields Pressure Bullion
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on Friday but stayed close to a 17-month high. It is still on pace for a 1% weekly gain.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This has weighed on demand this week.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.344% on Thursday. That was its highest level since 2002. It eased back to around 5.25% by Friday morning.
🚨WARNING: US Treasuries just posted their WORST month in four years, per FT.
The 10-year yield surged more than half a percentage point in September to 5.3%, the sharpest rise since September 2022.
The 30-year yield is trading at its highest level since June 2002.
Investors… pic.twitter.com/FycpiaSeqb
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 1, 2026
Higher yields have been a major factor in gold’s decline. The metal fell 6% in September largely due to rising borrowing costs across the bond market.
Jobs Data and Fed Rate Path in Focus
Markets are focused on the September nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday. Economists expect employers added close to 90,000 jobs. That would be down sharply from 162,000 in August.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last month. That brought the rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the Fed’s first hike in three years.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank may need more time before deciding on another increase. His comments lowered expectations for an October hike.
Traders now price in about a 26% to 27% chance of a rate increase this month. That is down from roughly 70% just a week earlier.
Cooler inflation data this week also reduced expectations for further tightening. Investors had grown more confident the Fed could pause rate hikes in the near term.
Oil prices have added another layer to the story. Prices rose on signs that tensions in the Middle East could worsen.
The Pentagon may send an additional aircraft carrier and about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. That would raise the number of carrier strike groups in the region to levels last seen at the start of the war against Iran in February.
Higher oil prices have helped push global bond yields higher. This has added to the competing forces affecting gold, balancing safe-haven demand against the higher cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Other metals moved modestly higher. Silver rose 0.2% to $61.05 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.4% to $1,733.60 an ounce.
Copper also ticked up. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $14,298.33 a ton. U.S. copper futures gained 0.4% to $5.57 a pound.
As of Friday morning trading in Singapore, spot gold was at $4,182.20 an ounce, up 0.1%. Silver traded at $61.14 an ounce, up 0.3%, following a 0.9% gain the previous day.
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