Stock prices rise over the long run, but the path is never smooth. Every few years, a steep drop pushes the market into what investors call a bear market.
This article looks at the numbers behind those drops. It uses research from Hartford Funds, Investopedia, Morningstar, The Motley Fool and Vanguard, plus a market commentary from June 2022.
The data covers how often bear markets happen, how far stocks fall, how long the declines last and how fast markets have recovered. Sources count bear markets in slightly different ways, so the article notes where the totals differ.
What Is a Bear Market?
A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from a recent high. Hartford Funds says an index reaches bear territory when its closing price falls 20% or more from its most recent peak.
A smaller drop of 10% to 19.9% is called a correction. A new bull market begins when the closing price gains 20% from its low.
Investopedia points out that the 20% line is arbitrary, just as 10% is for a correction. It also offers a second view. A bear market can be a stretch when investors prefer safe assets over risky ones, which can last for months or years.
Bear markets are not limited to the broad stock market. Oil prices were in a bear market from May 2014 to February 2016, and several large stock indexes around the world fell into bear territory in 2018.
Bear markets also come in different sizes. Some are deep and slow, like the 2007 to 2009 decline. Others are fast, like the one in early 2020.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Correction | A drop of 10% to 19.9% from a recent high |
| Bear market | A drop of 20% or more from a recent high, measured by closing price |
| Bull market | A gain of 20% or more from a market low |
Bear Markets vs. Bull Markets: Losses, Gains and Length
Bear markets cut deep, but bull markets add more and last longer. Hartford Funds, using Ned Davis Research data as of March 31, 2025, found that stocks lose 35% on average in a bear market.
In a bull market, stocks gain 112% on average. The average bear market lasts 289 days, or about 9.6 months, while the average bull market lasts 988 days, or 2.7 years.
Vanguard’s chart of the MSCI World Index, which covers developed markets from 1970 to 2025, shows a similar pattern. It lists an average bull period of 5 years and 7 months and an average bear period of 9 months.
The two sets of numbers differ because they track different indexes and time frames. Both show that bear markets are far shorter than bull markets.
Investopedia makes the same point with First Trust data. Its chart of market durations since 1942 shows that bear markets have been short compared with the bull markets around them.
Hartford Funds counts 27 bear markets and 28 bull markets in the S&P 500 since 1928. Over that span, stocks have gained a great deal over the long term.
| Measure | Bear market | Bull market |
|---|---|---|
| Average price change | -35% | +112% |
| Average length (S&P 500) | 289 days (9.6 months) | 988 days (2.7 years) |
| Count since 1928 (S&P 500) | 27 | 28 |
| Average length (MSCI World, 1970 to 2025) | 9 months | 5 years, 7 months |
How Often Do Bear Markets Happen?
Bear markets are a normal part of investing. Hartford Funds counts 27 of them in the S&P 500 Index since 1928, which works out to one about every 3.5 years.
Investopedia gives a longer gap. It says bear markets have arrived about every 4.8 years since 1929, and it counts 25 since 1928 using other data.
Morningstar looked back even further. Using data from 1871, it found 19 market crashes in about 150 years, or roughly one each decade.
The totals differ because sources use different start dates, different indexes and different rules for when one decline ends and another begins. The overall pattern is the same in all of them.
Bear markets have also become less frequent over time. Hartford Funds found 12 bear markets between 1928 and 1945, or one about every 1.5 years.
Since 1945, there have been 15, or one about every 5.1 years. The earlier period includes the Great Depression.
First Trust data cited by Investopedia found 14 bear markets between April 1947 and April 2022. They ranged in length from one month to 1.7 years.
Hartford Funds says an investor with a 50-year horizon can expect to live through about 14 bear markets, give or take.
Over the last 95 years, bear markets took up about 21.4 years in total. That means stocks were rising about 78% of the time.
| Source | Period | Bear markets | Typical gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Funds | 1928 to 2024 | 27 | About 3.5 years |
| Hartford Funds | 1928 to 1945 | 12 | About 1.5 years |
| Hartford Funds | 1945 to 2024 | 15 | About 5.1 years |
| Investopedia | Since 1928 / 1929 | 25 | About 4.8 years |
| Morningstar | 1871 to 2026 | 19 | About once a decade |
How Deep Do Bear Markets Fall?
The average bear market in the S&P 500 has been a 35.24% decline from peak to trough, according to the Hartford Funds table built from Ned Davis Research data. The middle value is a little lower, at 33.51%.
The range is wide. The shallowest decline was 20.57% in 1948 and 1949. The deepest was 61.81% from November 1931 to June 1932.
Eight of the 27 declines were worse than 40%. Three were worse than 50%: the 1931 to 1932 drop, the 54.50% drop of 1937 to 1938 and the 51.93% drop of 2007 to 2008.
The 1973 to 1974 decline of 48.20% came close to that mark.
Other measures show even larger losses. Investopedia says the 1929 crash and the years after it cut about 89% from the Dow Jones Industrial Average over roughly three years.
Morningstar adjusts for inflation and uses total market data back to 1871. It puts the Great Depression loss at 79%.
Not every bear market is a disaster. Declines that came without a recession averaged about 27%, compared with 35% across all of them, according to a market commentary from June 2022.
Recent bear markets have been mild by this measure. The 2022 decline was 25.43%, and the 2020 decline was 33.92%.
The table below lists all 27 S&P 500 declines of 20% or more from 1929 to 2022.
| Start and end date | Price decline | Length in days |
|---|---|---|
| 9/7/1929 to 11/13/1929 | -44.67% | 67 |
| 4/10/1930 to 12/16/1930 | -44.29% | 250 |
| 2/24/1931 to 6/2/1931 | -32.86% | 98 |
| 6/27/1931 to 10/5/1931 | -43.10% | 100 |
| 11/9/1931 to 6/1/1932 | -61.81% | 205 |
| 9/7/1932 to 2/27/1933 | -40.60% | 173 |
| 7/18/1933 to 10/21/1933 | -29.75% | 95 |
| 2/6/1934 to 3/14/1935 | -31.81% | 401 |
| 3/6/1937 to 3/31/1938 | -54.50% | 390 |
| 11/9/1938 to 4/8/1939 | -26.18% | 150 |
| 10/25/1939 to 6/10/1940 | -31.95% | 229 |
| 11/9/1940 to 4/28/1942 | -34.47% | 535 |
| 5/29/1946 to 5/17/1947 | -28.78% | 353 |
| 6/15/1948 to 6/13/1949 | -20.57% | 363 |
| 8/2/1956 to 10/22/1957 | -21.63% | 446 |
| 12/12/1961 to 6/26/1962 | -27.97% | 196 |
| 2/9/1966 to 10/7/1966 | -22.18% | 240 |
| 11/29/1968 to 5/26/1970 | -36.06% | 543 |
| 1/11/1973 to 10/3/1974 | -48.20% | 630 |
| 11/28/1980 to 8/12/1982 | -27.11% | 622 |
| 8/25/1987 to 12/4/1987 | -33.51% | 101 |
| 3/24/2000 to 9/21/2001 | -36.77% | 546 |
| 1/4/2002 to 10/9/2002 | -33.75% | 278 |
| 10/9/2007 to 11/20/2008 | -51.93% | 408 |
| 1/6/2009 to 3/9/2009 | -27.62% | 62 |
| 2/19/2020 to 3/23/2020 | -33.92% | 33 |
| 1/3/2022 to 10/12/2022 | -25.43% | 282 |
| Average | -35.24% | 289 |
How Long Do Bear Markets Last?
Most bear markets end within a year or two. The average length in the Hartford Funds table is 289 days, and the middle value is 250 days.
Investopedia cites a similar average of about 9.6 months. That matches the Hartford Funds figure.
The longest bear market lasted 630 days, from January 1973 to October 1974. The next longest were 622 days in 1980 to 1982 and 546 days in 2000 to 2001.
The shortest was 33 days, from February 19 to March 23, 2020. That decline was 33.92%, so it was both fast and deep.
Length and depth do not always go together. The 1929 decline lasted only 67 days but fell 44.67%. The 1948 to 1949 decline lasted 363 days and fell only 20.57%.
Nine of the 27 declines lasted more than a year. The other 18 ended in less than a year.
The 2022 bear market ran from January 3 to October 12, or 282 days. By comparison, the 2007 to 2008 decline lasted 408 days.
| Rank | Period | Length in days | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longest | 1/11/1973 to 10/3/1974 | 630 | -48.20% |
| 2nd longest | 11/28/1980 to 8/12/1982 | 622 | -27.11% |
| 3rd longest | 3/24/2000 to 9/21/2001 | 546 | -36.77% |
| Shortest | 2/19/2020 to 3/23/2020 | 33 | -33.92% |
| 2nd shortest | 1/6/2009 to 3/9/2009 | 62 | -27.62% |
| 3rd shortest | 9/7/1929 to 11/13/1929 | 67 | -44.67% |
Do Bear Markets Mean a Recession Is Coming?
Not always. Hartford Funds, citing the National Bureau of Economic Research, notes that there were 27 bear markets since 1928 but only 15 recessions in that time.
Bear markets often come with a slowing economy. A falling market, though, does not mean a recession is on the way.
Investopedia counted 25 bear markets since 1928. Of those, 14, or 56%, happened with a recession and 11, or 44%, did not.
In some cases the market turned down first. The declines of 36.1% in the late 1960s and 48.2% in the early 1970s began before recessions. They ended shortly before those recessions hit bottom.
The dot-com crash of 2000 to 2002 was driven by a loss of confidence in stock prices that had reached historic highs. The S&P 500 fell 36.8% over about 1.5 years, with a short recession in the middle.
The 2007 to 2009 bear market lasted 1.3 years and cut the S&P 500 by 51.9%. The economy had entered a recession in 2007, and a crisis in subprime mortgages grew into a wider financial crisis by September 2008.
Central banks stepped in with large injections of cash through quantitative easing. This pushed interest rates to record lows and helped support stock prices.
Morningstar adds that the US avoided both a recession and a bear market in 2025, even though stocks came close to bear territory in April of that year.
| Bear market | Decline | Main causes cited |
|---|---|---|
| 1973 to 1974 | -48.2% | Oil embargo, inflation, the Vietnam War, Watergate |
| 2000 to 2002 | -36.8% | Loss of confidence in high stock valuations |
| 2007 to 2009 | -51.9% | Subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis |
| 2020 | -33.9% | COVID-19 pandemic and an oil price war |
| 2022 | -25.4% | Inflation and higher interest rates |
The Biggest Crashes and How Long Recovery Took
Morningstar studied US stock returns back to 1871 and found 19 market crashes. After adjusting for inflation, one dollar invested in 1871 grew to $35,082 by the end of February 2026.
The path was far from smooth. Morningstar tracked what would have happened to $100 invested at the start of five of the worst crashes.
The Great Depression, which began with the 1929 crash, was the worst. It caused a 79% loss, the largest of the past 150 years.
The Lost Decade ranks second. It included the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, and it produced a 54% loss. The market did not return to its earlier level until May 2013, more than 12 years after the first crash.
| Crash | Lowest value of $100 | Recovery |
|---|---|---|
| World War I and influenza (peak June 1911) | $49.04 | After the 1918 influenza pandemic |
| 1929 crash and Great Depression | $21.00 (May 1932) | More than four years |
| Great Depression, second part (1937) | $52.49 (March 1938) | $104.88 by February 1945 |
| Inflation, Vietnam and Watergate (1973) | $48.13 | More than nine years |
| Lost Decade (2000 to 2009) | $52.76, then $46 | May 2013 |
Morningstar also built a pain index. It combines how deep a crash was with how long it took to recover. The 1929 crash scores 100%, and other crashes are measured against it.
The 1929 drop was 3.5 times as large as the 22.8% fall around the Cuban missile crisis. When recovery time is included, the first part of the Great Depression was 28.2 times worse.
Recent crashes look different. The downturn that began in December 2021 included a 28.5% decline over nine months, and the market took 18 months to recover.
In March 2020, Morningstar’s monthly data shows a 19.6% decline over about a month. The market recovered in four months, the fastest recovery of any crash in 150 years and the least painful of the 19 on the pain index.
Long-term results still favored patient investors. Morningstar says $100 invested at the start of 2000 would be worth more than $300 by February 2026. A $100 investment made in 1870 would be worth $3,508,200.
What Happens After the Bottom
Stocks have often bounced back quickly. A market commentary from June 2022 found that since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in 75% of the years that followed a bear market low.
The average gains were 6% over the next three months and 17% over the next 12 months. The commentary said stocks lagged 12 months after the lows in 2009 and in the early 1970s.
Hartford Funds found that timing the recovery is hard. About 42% of the S&P 500’s strongest days over the last 20 years happened during a bear market.
Another 36% came in the first two months of a bull market, before it was clear that a new bull had begun. That leaves 22% of the best days at other times.
An investor who sold during a decline and waited for clear signs could have missed many of those days. Morningstar reaches a similar view, saying it is impossible to predict how long a recovery will take.
The Motley Fool notes that the S&P 500 has delivered average annual returns of 9.98% since 1928. At that rate, $1,000 would grow to $1,099.80 after one year. The return is not guaranteed in any given year.
The Motley Fool also points to dollar-cost averaging, which means investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule. This spreads purchases across high and low prices.
Some investors try to profit from falling prices. Investopedia lists short selling stocks or ETFs, buying inverse ETFs, buying put options and selling futures. These methods carry their own risks.
Hartford Funds also reminds readers that diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.
The Bottom Line: What Bear Market Data Shows
The data points in one direction. Bear markets happen often, hurt while they last and have always ended.
Across 27 S&P 500 declines since 1929, the average loss was 35.24% and the average length was 289 days. Bull markets have averaged gains of 112% and lasted 988 days.
Over the last 95 years, stocks were rising about 78% of the time. Recovery times ranged from four months to more than a dozen years, and no source claims to predict the next one.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
| Statistic | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Average bear market loss | 35% | Hartford Funds |
| Average bull market gain | 112% | Hartford Funds |
| Average bear market length | 289 days | Hartford Funds |
| Average bull market length | 988 days | Hartford Funds |
| S&P 500 bear markets since 1928 | 27 | Hartford Funds |
| Share of time stocks were rising | 78% | Hartford Funds |
| Worst crash in 150 years | 79% loss | Morningstar |
| Fastest recovery | 4 months (2020) | Morningstar |
| Best days in bear markets | 42% | Hartford Funds |
Sources
- 10 Things You Should Know About Bear Markets (Hartford Funds)
- Bear Markets Explained: Causes, History, and Investment Opportunities (Investopedia)
- What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes (Morningstar)
- Prediction: A Bear Market Is Coming. Here’s What History Says Investors Should Do Based on 100 Years of Data (The Motley Fool)
- Bull and Bear Markets Over Time (Vanguard)
- History Suggests That US Stocks Have Further to Fall (market commentary, June 2022)
