TLDR
- Affirm beat Q4 revenue estimates with $1.2 billion, up 33% year over year
- Gross merchandise volume rose 36% to $14.1 billion, topping the $13.4 billion consensus
- AFRM stock rose 8.9% to $84.42 on Friday, its biggest single-day gain since January
- Affirm and Shopify are launching Shop Pay Installments in Australia
- Multiple analysts raised price targets, with Citi at $115 and J.P. Morgan at $105
Affirm posted a strong fiscal fourth quarter, beating Wall Street on both revenue and gross merchandise volume. The stock jumped 8.9% to $84.42 on Friday, its largest single-day move since January.
Revenue came in at $1.2 billion for the three months ended June 30, up 33% year over year and ahead of the $1.1 billion analysts had expected.
Gross merchandise volume hit $14.1 billion, a 36% increase and well above the $13.4 billion consensus estimate. Direct merchant point-of-sale integrations drove roughly half of that growth.
GAAP operating margins grew six percentage points from last year to 12.6%, reflecting the operating leverage the company has been building.
Newly appointed company president Michael Linford called the quarter a “home run,” pointing out it marked the 11th straight quarter of GMV growth above 30%.
Shopify Australia Expansion
On the same day earnings dropped, Affirm announced it was expanding its partnership with Shopify to launch Shop Pay Installments in Australia. The product has been one of Shopify’s most popular payment options across the US, Canada, and the UK since launching in 2021.
The move marks Affirm’s return to the Australian market. Australian merchants on Shopify can now offer customers fortnightly or monthly payment options with no late fees.
Linford framed it as Shopify pulling Affirm into another market, similar to last year’s UK expansion.
“Our largest partner, Shopify, is once again pulling us into a new market,” Linford said. “We really think there’s an opportunity here to serve all the markets that Shopify is in.”
Analyst Reaction
The analyst community responded positively. Susquehanna’s James Friedman raised his price target to $110 from $105, calling the results and full-year 2027 guidance “exceptionally strong.”
Citi analyst Bryan Keane kept his Buy rating with a $115 price target. He called Affirm a “secular winner in payments” and argued it is now “too big to be slowed down or disintermediated.”
J.P. Morgan’s Connor Allen raised his target to $105 from $90, reiterating an Overweight rating.
Morgan Stanley’s James Faucette lifted his target to $82 from $80 but stayed on the sidelines, citing valuation.
For fiscal year 2027, Affirm guided for GMV exceeding $64 billion, above the $63 billion consensus. The company is targeting $100 billion in GMV over the medium term, a milestone analysts expect it to hit by 2029.
Affirm’s 30-day delinquency rate came in at 2.5% for the quarter, excluding Peloton and Pay in 4 loans, down from the 2.7% to 2.8% range seen over the prior three quarters.
Affirm stock has gained 4.1% in 2026 through Friday, trailing the broader market. Sector peers SoFi and Klarna remain in negative territory year to date, down 27% and 52% respectively.
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