TLDR
- Apple reports Q2 FY26 earnings after market close today, April 30
- Wall Street expects EPS of $1.95 and revenue of ~$109 billion, up ~15% year-over-year
- Options traders are pricing in a 3.85% move in either direction post-earnings
- Key focus areas: iPhone demand in China, Apple Intelligence AI updates, and Q3 guidance
- UBS raised its price target to $287 but kept a Hold rating; consensus is Moderate Buy with a $299.80 average target
Apple reports its fiscal second-quarter earnings after the bell today, and the numbers themselves may not be the most important part of the story.
Wall Street expects EPS of $1.95, reflecting 18.2% year-over-year growth. Revenue is forecast at around $109 billion, up roughly 15% from a year ago.
For context, Apple’s previous quarter was a strong one — record revenue of $143.8 billion, EPS of $2.84, iPhone sales up 23%, and Services revenue up 14%.
The question now is whether that momentum holds.
Options traders are pricing in a 3.85% swing in either direction following today’s report. That’s more than double Apple’s average post-earnings move of 1.77% over the past four quarters, suggesting some uncertainty in the market.
iPhone and China in the Spotlight
iPhone demand in China will be closely watched. Local competition has been mounting, and any signs of market share erosion could weigh on the stock. Investors want to see stabilization, if not recovery.
Apple Intelligence — the company’s AI push — is another key thread to pull. Markets want to know if AI features are actually driving device upgrades or just adding noise to the marketing.
Reports suggest iOS 27 could bring a deeper Siri integration into the iPhone camera, potentially letting users point at objects to run ChatGPT queries or Google image searches. If confirmed, that could be a meaningful upgrade catalyst.
Margins, Buybacks, and Guidance
Apple guided gross margins of 48% to 49% for the quarter. Memory pricing and other component costs could put pressure on that range, so the actual print will matter.
Capital returns are also on investors’ radar. There’s appetite for increased buybacks or a dividend bump, and the earnings call could deliver on that front.
What Analysts Are Saying
UBS analyst David Vogt raised his price target from $280 to $287 ahead of today’s report, driven by higher iPhone sales expectations. He kept his Hold rating in place.
The broader Wall Street consensus sits at Moderate Buy — 17 Buys, nine Holds, one Sell. The average price target is $299.80, implying about 11% upside from current levels.
AAPL stock is down 1.1% year-to-date heading into today’s report, trading around $270.
Third-quarter guidance will be the other number to watch closely. Services revenue has been a reliable growth engine, but hardware sales tend to soften in Q3, and the market will want reassurance that Services can pick up the slack.
The earnings call begins after market close today.
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