TLDR
- Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin may be forming a local bottom as it breaks from U.S. SaaS stocks.
- He stated that Bitcoin is no longer moving in lockstep with software equities.
- Hayes warned that macro risks such as AI job disruption and financial stress still remain.
- Bitcoin peaked near $76,000 in mid March before falling toward $65,000 support.
- The asset rebounded in April and recently reclaimed the $76,000 level.
Bitcoin rebounded toward $75,000 as Arthur Hayes assessed whether the asset formed a local bottom. He pointed to fresh price strength against U.S. SaaS stocks as a positive shift. However, he warned that macro pressures still threaten the broader market structure.
Arthur Hayes Flags SaaS Decoupling as Key Signal
Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin may be breaking away from U.S. SaaS software equities. He wrote, “But maybe $BTC is breaking out against US SaaS software, and we bottomed?” He argued that earlier rallies failed because Bitcoin moved in lockstep with software stocks.
During the previous rebound, Hayes warned traders about a possible “dead cat bounce.” He explained that Bitcoin traded like a high-beta tech stock instead of digital gold. As software shares reacted to macro data, Bitcoin followed due to persistent correlation.
He stressed that macro risks still weigh on markets. He cited AI-driven job disruption and a looming financial crisis as headwinds. However, he acknowledged that the recent decoupling could mark a turning point if it holds.
$BTC isn’t out of the woods given the ceasefire, the AI destruction of knowledge workers is accelerating, a financial crisis is nigh. But maybe $BTC is breaking out against US SaaS software and we bottomed? pic.twitter.com/BvocnMhMxX
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 16, 2026
Hayes stated that Bitcoin is “not out of the woods yet.” He maintained that correlation trends will determine the next directional move. Therefore, he continues to track Bitcoin’s behavior against U.S. tech equities.
Bitcoin Reclaims $76,000 After Multi-Week Pullback
Bitcoin reached a peak near $76,000 in mid-March before sellers forced a reversal. The asset then declined steadily and tested support around $65,000. That zone acted as a local floor during the extended pullback.
Since early April, buyers have regained control and pushed prices higher. Bitcoin reclaimed the $76,000 level during the recent recovery phase. At the time of reporting, the asset traded at $74,986 on Bitstamp.
The recovery followed several weeks of gradual upward movement. Price action showed higher lows as bulls reclaimed lost ground. This structure supported Hayes’ view that momentum may be shifting.
Earlier, Hayes linked Bitcoin’s weakness to broader tech stock declines. He argued that macro-driven pressure on SaaS companies dragged crypto prices lower. Now, he observes that Bitcoin’s recent strength diverges from that pattern.
Bitcoin advocates often describe the asset as digital gold. However, Hayes noted that recent trading behavior resembled tech equities. The latest price movement against SaaS stocks now forms the basis of his updated outlook.
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