TLDR
- Bernstein raised its ASML price target to €2,300 from €1,700, keeping an “outperform” rating
- The upgrade is driven by AI-led growth in advanced logic and DRAM chip manufacturing capacity
- Bernstein forecasts ASML EUV revenue to grow at a 30% compound annual rate, hitting €42.7 billion by 2030
- Overall ASML revenue is expected to reach €80 billion by 2030, 24% above current consensus estimates
- Bernstein also raised price targets on TSMC, Intel, Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix
Bernstein has raised its price target on ASML Holding to €2,300, up from €1,700, while keeping its “outperform” rating on the stock. That’s a 35% jump in the target alone.
The move comes as the brokerage materially lifted its revenue forecasts for ASML, pointing to what it called “unprecedented AI-driven expansion” in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity.
ASML stock has more than doubled over the past 12 months. Bernstein analyst David Dai has named it a top pick among European semiconductor stocks.
Bernstein raised its target multiple to 40 times earnings, up from 35 times, describing that as one standard deviation above the historical mean.
The firm raised its 2027 shipment forecast for extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, including High-NA machines, to 91 units from 86. Its 2028 forecast moved to 113 units from 87.
EUV Revenue Forecasts Get a Big Lift
Bernstein now expects ASML’s EUV revenue to grow at a 30% compound annual rate, reaching €42.7 billion by 2030. That’s more than 30% above what it described as the street estimate.
Deep ultraviolet revenue forecasts also moved higher, with Bernstein projecting €20 billion by 2030, up from €13 billion in 2026.
Overall, Bernstein sees ASML hitting €80 billion in revenue by 2030 — a 20% compound annual growth rate and 24% above current consensus estimates of €64 billion.
On earnings, Bernstein projected 2028 EPS of €67, which it said is 35% above consensus, and 2030 EPS of €97, a 31% compound annual growth rate.
The firm’s case is simple: the stock has doubled, but the earnings have grown with it. This isn’t multiple expansion driving the move — it’s the underlying business.
High-NA Adoption Timeline
Bernstein laid out its expected timeline for High-NA EUV adoption across chipmakers. It expects memory producers to move first, given that DRAM dies are smaller and require only one mask.
SK Hynix and Samsung are expected to adopt High-NA in DRAM production in 2027. Intel follows in logic in 2028, Samsung in logic in 2029, and TSMC in 2030.
Bernstein noted TSMC’s later adoption doesn’t mean the technology is less attractive for the world’s largest foundry. It attributed the slower timeline to TSMC’s “prudence and conservativeness” when adopting new tools.
Litho intensity — the share of total manufacturing cost tied to lithography — is expected to rise from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, driven primarily by DRAM.
Bernstein also raised price targets across the semiconductor space: TSMC to $430 from $351, Intel to $100 from $65, Micron to $1,300 from $510, Samsung to 440,000 won from 225,000 won, and SK Hynix to 3,300,000 won from 1,150,000 won.
Downside risks flagged by Bernstein include margins falling short on EUV commercialization costs, inventory buildup in China, a weaker wafer fab equipment market, and further export controls limiting sales to Chinese customers.
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