TLDR
- Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan downgraded AT&T from Outperform to Perform, removing his prior $32 price target.
- AT&T stock dropped 4.4% to $23.56 on Wednesday — its worst single-day fall since October 2025 — and is now down 5.2% year-to-date.
- The downgrade is driven by growing satellite broadband competition from SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo, which Horan says could erode AT&T’s internet subscriber base.
- SpaceX is expected to go public next week, which Horan warns will put a spotlight on the satellite threat to traditional broadband providers.
- Horan projects satellite LEO providers will capture over 2 million subscribers per year, reaching 10% market share by 2030, with Starlink pricing now on par with legacy broadband.
AT&T (T) Stock Falls 4.4% After Oppenheimer Downgrade Over Satellite Competition Risk
AT&T stock dropped 4.4% to $23.56 on Wednesday after Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan cut the telecom giant from Outperform to Perform, removing his $32 price target entirely. It was the stock’s worst single-day move since October 2025.
The downgrade wasn’t about anything AT&T did wrong. It was about what’s coming from above — literally.
Horan’s concern centers on the growing threat from satellite low-earth-orbit (LEO) broadband providers, particularly SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo. He believes the telecom industry is underestimating how disruptive satellite internet could be to fixed broadband, in much the same way cable companies misjudged fixed wireless access.
“We are concerned the industry is underestimating the risk of satellite as cable did with [fixed wireless access],” Horan wrote in his research note.
SpaceX IPO Set to Shine a Light on the Risk
The timing of the downgrade is no coincidence. SpaceX is expected to go public next week, and Horan says the IPO will draw attention to the competitive threat satellite poses to legacy telecom providers like AT&T.
Horan projects satellite will capture more than 2 million subscribers per year and could reach 10% market share by 2030. He also notes that Starlink pricing is now on par with traditional broadband, with capacity expected to increase tenfold with V3 satellites.
Of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, Horan sees AT&T as most exposed. He cites AT&T’s large wireline footprint and its lag behind peers in expanding fixed wireless access as key vulnerabilities. He also expects pressure on average revenue per user (ARPU), with stronger cost structures at T-Mobile and Verizon making the competitive picture worse.
AT&T CEO John Stankey has publicly pushed back on the satellite threat. At the company’s annual shareholder meeting in May, he acknowledged satellite’s role in reaching hard-to-reach areas, but said: “I don’t think satellite is a substitute for the speed, reliability and capability of our assets that we’ve been investing in for decades.”
AT&T’s $250 Billion Bet
The company isn’t sitting still. In March, AT&T announced plans to spend $250 billion over five years accelerating fiber, 5G, and wireless deployment across the country.
Stankey said on the Q1 earnings call in April that AT&T currently reaches more than 37 million customer locations with fiber and is on track to hit 60 million-plus by the end of the decade.
AT&T also recently launched a promotion offering bundled home internet and wireless for as little as $35 per month.
Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha authors currently rate AT&T as a Buy, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating holds it at a Hold with a score of 3.42 out of 5, with high marks for profitability but a low score for growth.
AT&T stock is now down 5.2% in 2026.
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