TLDR
- Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 as a US-Iran conflict pause reduced inflation fears
- A US Federal Reserve meeting this week has markets on edge, with a one-third chance of a rate hike
- Bitcoin whales withdrew $198 million from Kraken exchange, reducing available selling supply
- Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio jumped 350% in 24 hours, pointing to tightening scarcity
- Miners reduced selling pressure, with the Miners’ Position Index dropping to -1.24
Bitcoin rose above $65,000 on Monday as a pause in US-Iran military exchanges over the weekend pushed oil prices sharply lower and improved investor mood across global markets.
Brent crude fell more than 5% after Iran said it would halt retaliatory attacks if Washington stopped further military action. The US also paused its bombing campaign. That cooled fears of a wider conflict and took pressure off inflation expectations.
A softer inflation outlook weakened the US dollar, making cryptocurrencies more attractive to overseas buyers. Bitcoin last traded around $65,405, up roughly 1.5% on the day.
Analyst Ted Pillows noted on social media that BTC was hovering near $64,500 and that a reclaim of $65,000 could push Bitcoin to new monthly highs.
$BTC is hovering around the $64,500 level.
A reclaim of $65,000 could send Bitcoin to new monthly highs. pic.twitter.com/7yYj6yO9Yl
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 26, 2026
Fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades added that the key level for bulls to break is the local high from June/July near $67,000, with the 200-day moving average sitting around $72,000–$73,000 as the next target. He placed high-timeframe support at the $60,000 range low.
$BTC These levels are still all you need.
The level to break for the bulls is that local high from June/July at ~$67K. From there you can start targeting
the daily 200MA/EMA coming in around the $72K-$73K area.On the downside, the high timeframe support to hold is that $60K… pic.twitter.com/IXWQ2PMX3C
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 26, 2026
Federal Reserve Meeting in Focus
All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Markets currently price in about a one-in-three chance of a rate increase. Traders will watch Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments closely for clues on the rest of 2026.
Higher rates tend to hurt speculative assets like crypto by making safer investments more appealing.
Whale Activity and Supply Squeeze
On-chain data added another layer to Bitcoin’s recovery story. Nearly 3,080 BTC, worth close to $198 million, left Kraken exchange in two separate transfers. The coins moved to unknown wallets, a pattern that often reflects long-term holding rather than selling.
Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio climbed to 46,500, a 350% jump over 24 hours. The sharp rise signals tighter supply conditions as fewer coins remain available on exchanges.
Miners also pulled back on selling. The Miners’ Position Index fell to -1.24, down over 128% in one day. Negative readings mean miners are selling fewer coins relative to their one-year average, reducing another source of potential market supply.
Bitcoin was trading near $64,368 at press time, holding above channel support around $63,824. Resistance sits at $66,835, with a larger barrier near $73,000. The RSI stood at 50.85, showing cooled but not bearish momentum.
Key support to watch remains $63,824. A break below that level could open the door to $60,000.
