TLDR
- Bitcoin price currently around $96,500, down 1% in 24 hours
- Analyst predicts Bitcoin cycle top could arrive on October 11, 2025
- $300K call option for June 26 has second-highest open interest with $484 million
- Quarterly June expiry is the largest of all settlements due this year
- Senator Lummis expressed support for the BITCOIN Act as a solution to national debt
Bitcoin (BTC) has been showing renewed bullish momentum after hitting an all-time high of $108,786 earlier this year. While many thought the cycle top had been reached, recent price action suggests otherwise, with the cryptocurrency now looking to reclaim the $100,000 level.
A crypto analyst named Brett recently shared an interesting analysis of Bitcoin’s price structure on X. By examining previous cycles, Brett calculated that Bitcoin is currently 903 days from its 2022 bottom.
Bitcoin: Bottom to Present. Present to Top.
Last two cycles:
903 days from bottom to present
161 days from present to top🟦 = The amount of time it's been since the bottom in 2022. I then put that same time (903 days) over the the prior two cycles.
🟩 = The amount of time… pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmuMW— ₿rett (@brett_eth) May 3, 2025
In both previous cycles (2015-2017 and 2018-2021), Bitcoin reached its peak exactly 161 days after the same 903-day period from the bottom.
If this pattern holds true for the current cycle, Bitcoin could reach its top on October 11, 2025.
This timeline challenges the typical cycle theory that many had assumed was over at the start of 2025.
BTC Price
Traders Betting Big on $300K Bitcoin
In the options market, traders are making bets on Bitcoin’s future price. The $300,000 strike Bitcoin call option expiring on June 26 has become the second-most popular bet in that expiry period.
Over 5,000 contracts are active in this option, with a notional open interest of $484 million. This makes it second only to the $110K call option.
These deep out-of-the-money calls function like lottery tickets. They’re relatively cheap to purchase but offer huge payoffs if Bitcoin’s price surges dramatically.
“Perhaps, people like buying lottery tickets. As shown by the call skew, there are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge,” explained Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at market maker GSR.
The June 26 expiry is particularly important as it represents the largest settlement among all due this year.
According to Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives, some of the $300K calls were sold in April as part of a covered call strategy.
“My thought is that the selling volume on April 23 came from traders generating income against a long position,” he told CoinDesk.
Political Support Growing
The interest in high-price Bitcoin options may be linked to changing U.S. regulatory sentiment.
GSR’s Trader Simranjeet Singh suggested the large interest in $300K calls might be related to “the broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto and the ‘wingy possibility’ of a BTC strategic reserve that was punted around at the start of the administration.”
This view seems to be gaining political support. Senator Cynthia Lummis recently expressed pleasure with President Trump’s support of her BITCOIN Act, calling it “the only solution to our nation’s $36T debt.”
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at around $96,500, showing a slight decline of about 1% over the past 24 hours.
Whether Bitcoin will follow the historical pattern and reach a new cycle top in October 2025 remains to be seen, but traders are clearly positioning themselves for potential upside beyond current all-time highs.
The June options expiry will be an important date to watch for Bitcoin’s price direction in the near term.
