Bitcoin is trading about a third below its all-time high. On October 12, 2026, Bitcoin.com listed the price at $83,700, which is 32.74% under the peak set on October 6, 2025.
This article looks at that gap and compares it with earlier cycles. It uses data from Bitcoin.com, Bitbo, Glassnode, CoinShares and Chainthink.
A drawdown is the drop from the highest price reached to a later price, shown as a percent. It gives a simple way to compare price moves across 15 years, even when prices were very different.
Each section below has a table and a chart. Figures differ a little between sources because each one uses its own price feed and update time.
Where Bitcoin Stands Today
Three data providers give a similar picture of the current drawdown. Bitcoin.com lists Bitcoin at $83,700 on October 12, 2026, which is 32.74% below its all-time high. Glassnode reports a drawdown of 33.693%, and Bitbo shows 34.4% at a price of $82,726.
The gap between the lowest and highest reading is 1.66 percentage points. It comes from small differences in price feeds and update times. Bitbo says its data refreshes every four hours, so its reading may lag the others.
The all-time high also differs by source. Bitcoin.com records $124,448 and Bitbo records $126,102. Both place it on October 6, 2025.
That is a difference of $1,654, or about 1.3%. Because drawdown is measured from the high, a higher peak produces a larger drawdown. This explains part of the spread in the table below.
| Source | Price | All-time high | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin.com | $83,700 | $124,448 | -32.74% |
| Bitbo | $82,726 | $126,102 | -34.4% |
| Glassnode | Not shown | Not shown | -33.693% |
Both Bitcoin.com and Bitbo count 371 days since the peak. Bitbo also lists a historical average drawdown of 42.8%. The current reading of about 33% to 34% sits below that average.
Bitbo lists the deepest drawdown on record as 91.4%, reached on October 20, 2011. Bitcoin.com puts the 2011 fall at 93.58%. Bitcoin.com notes that early exchange prices varied widely, which can explain the difference.
Glassnode defines the metric in plain terms. It is the percent drawdown of the asset’s price from the previous all-time high. The same definition applies to every number in this article.
A drawdown figure is a snapshot. It changes with every price move, and it only falls to zero when price sets a new high. If Bitcoin passed its record, the count would reset and a new drawdown would begin from the higher peak.
When comparing sites, it helps to match the source. A reading from one provider should be compared with that same provider’s history, not with another’s. This keeps the price feed and the high consistent.
The October 2025 Peak and the 2026 Low
The current cycle began with a peak on October 6, 2025. Bitcoin.com records the price at $124,448 that day, and Bitbo records it at $126,102.
From there, Bitcoin fell for 268 days. Bitcoin.com shows the bottom on July 1, 2026, at $58,589. That is a maximum drawdown of 52.92%.
CoinShares covers the same period in a research note published on July 29, 2026. It says Bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average in June 2026 after a drop of more than 50% from its October 2025 high. The June touch and the July 1 low describe the same weak stretch.
Since the low, the price has recovered part of the loss. Using the Bitcoin.com figures, $83,700 is about 42.9% above the July low. It is still 32.74% below the peak.
| Price point | Date | Price | Gap to high |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-time high | Oct 6, 2025 | $124,448 | 0% |
| Cycle low | Jul 1, 2026 | $58,589 | -52.92% |
| Latest price | Oct 12, 2026 | $83,700 | -32.74% |
The drawdown has narrowed by 20.18 percentage points since the low. It went from 52.92% at the bottom to 32.74% today.
Bitcoin.com also shows the gain needed to reclaim the high. At $83,700, the price must rise 48.68% to return to $124,448. This is larger than the drawdown because the percentage applies to a lower price.
A low is only clear in hindsight. If price fell below $58,589, the cycle figures in this article would change. All numbers here reflect data as of October 12, 2026.
The time since the high is close to a year. Both Bitcoin.com and Bitbo count 371 days since October 6, 2025. In that span the price went from the peak to the low and then part of the way back.
The two sources differ on the high by about 1.3%, but the story is the same. Bitcoin set a record in early October 2025 and then fell by more than half over the next nine months. The fall took 268 days.
How Deep Past Bear Markets Went
Bitcoin.com lists five drawdown episodes. Four are complete and one is still in progress. The table below shows the peak, the bottom and the maximum drop for each.
The 2011 MtGox crash was the deepest. Price fell from $31.91 on June 8 to $2.05 on November 18, a drop of 93.58%. Bitcoin.com warns that early prices varied by exchange, so the exact figure depends on where the coin was traded.
The first full cycle peaked at $1,163 on December 4, 2013. It bottomed at $178 on January 14, 2015, a fall of 84.69%.
The second cycle peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017. It bottomed at $3,217 on December 15, 2018, a fall of 83.74%.
The third cycle peaked at $68,789 on November 10, 2021. It bottomed at $15,782 on November 21, 2022, a fall of 77.06%.
| Episode | Peak | Bottom | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| MtGox crash | Jun 8, 2011 ($31.91) | Nov 18, 2011 ($2.05) | -93.58% |
| Cycle 1 | Dec 4, 2013 ($1,163) | Jan 14, 2015 ($178.00) | -84.69% |
| Cycle 2 | Dec 17, 2017 ($19,783) | Dec 15, 2018 ($3,217) | -83.74% |
| Cycle 3 | Nov 10, 2021 ($68,789) | Nov 21, 2022 ($15,782) | -77.06% |
| Current cycle | Oct 6, 2025 ($124,448) | Jul 1, 2026 ($58,589) | -52.92% |
The maximum drop has become smaller with each episode. The four completed episodes fell 93.58%, 84.69%, 83.74% and 77.06%. The current episode has reached 52.92%.
The average of the four completed episodes is about 84.8%. The current cycle’s maximum drop is about 31.9 percentage points smaller than that average.
Five data points do not make a rule. Bitcoin’s market is larger than it was in 2011, but the data cannot prove that this keeps drops shallow. A new low in the current cycle would also change the comparison.
The percentages hide how different the prices were. In 2011 the fall was from about $32 to about $2. In 2021 and 2022 it was from $68,789 to $15,782, so dollar amounts grew while the percent drops shrank.
Three of the four earlier peaks came in November or December. They were December 2013, December 2017 and November 2021. The current peak, in October 2025, came a little earlier in the calendar year.
How Long Drops and Recoveries Lasted
Depth is one measure, and time is another. Bitcoin.com lists two time spans for each episode: days from peak to bottom, and days from peak to full recovery. Recovery means price returned to the old high.
Peak to bottom took 163 days in 2011, 406 days in the first cycle, 363 days in the second and 376 days in the third. The average is 327 days. The current cycle took 268 days, the second shortest of the five.
Recovery took longer. Counted from the peak, it took 631, 1,177, 1,095 and 852 days. The average is about 939 days, or roughly 2.6 years.
| Episode | Days to bottom | Days to recovery | Bottom to recovery* |
|---|---|---|---|
| MtGox crash | 163 | 631 | 468 |
| Cycle 1 | 406 | 1,177 | 771 |
| Cycle 2 | 363 | 1,095 | 732 |
| Cycle 3 | 376 | 852 | 476 |
| Current cycle | 268 | 372 and in progress | Not yet reached |
*Calculated by Coincentral.com by subtracting days to bottom from days to recovery.
The current cycle is at day 371 since the peak. The bottom came on day 268, so about 103 days have passed since the low. Bitcoin.com labels this episode as in progress.
A comparison with history shows the range. A recovery matching the shortest past case, 631 days, would arrive about 260 days from now. Matching the third cycle’s 852 days would be about 481 days away, and the longest, 1,177 days, about 806 days away. These are comparisons with the past, not forecasts.
Every completed episode did end in a new high. CoinShares reaches the same point. It says each drawdown in its chart, apart from the present one, ended when Bitcoin set a new price high.
The decline phase in the current cycle was shorter than in the three full cycles, which ran 363 to 406 days. Only the 2011 crash, at 163 days, was faster.
The time from bottom to recovery ranged from 468 to 771 days. If the current cycle matched that range, recovery would be about 365 to 668 days away from today. Again, this compares the present with the past and does not forecast it.
Pullbacks Inside Bull Markets
Not every drop is a bear market. During rising markets, Bitcoin also pulls back by smaller amounts. CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D tracked these pullbacks, and Chainthink reported his findings on October 9, 2026.
From October 5 to October 9, Bitcoin fell from $87,027 to $80,404. That is a decline of 7.61%.
MAC_D compared this with past bull cycles. The average pullback was 18.41% in 2010 to 2011, 21.71% in 2011 to 2013, 10.93% in 2015 to 2017 and 19.39% in 2018 to 2021.
For the 2022 to 2025 cycle, the average was 7.58%. The recent 7.61% drop is almost the same. The overall historical average he cites is 14.39%.
| Period | Average pullback |
|---|---|
| 2010 to 2011 | 18.41% |
| 2011 to 2013 | 21.71% |
| 2015 to 2017 | 10.93% |
| 2018 to 2021 | 19.39% |
| 2022 to 2025 | 7.58% |
| Overall historical average | 14.39% |
| Recent drop (Oct 5 to Oct 9, 2026) | 7.61% |
At the 14.39% average, a pullback from $87,027 would end near $74,500, according to MAC_D. This is a calculation based on history, not a prediction.
He also said investors might gradually accumulate around $80,000 and add more between $74,000 and $75,000. This is one analyst’s view. It is not advice, and prices can move past any level.
These pullbacks are measured differently from the drawdowns in earlier sections. They start from a recent high of $87,027, not the all-time high of $124,448. The price is still well below its peak after the recent drop.
The source figures also do not match in a simple way. A plain average of the four older cycle figures is 17.61%, higher than the 14.39% overall average. The source does not explain how the overall number was reached, so the two should not be treated as the same measure.
Pullbacks show how often large moves happen without a bear market. A 7.61% drop in four days can look large on a chart. Yet it is smaller than the average pullback in four of the five cycles listed.
The 2011 to 2013 cycle had the largest average pullback at 21.71%. The 2015 to 2017 cycle had the mildest of the older ones at 10.93%. The recent cycle sits at the low end of the range.
The 200-Week Average and Ten Large Drops
CoinShares published a research note called Bitcoin’s drawdown in context on July 29, 2026. It says Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% on ten occasions in its 18 years of existence.
The firm says Bitcoin has been more volatile than most currencies. It links this to Bitcoin’s limited use as a way to pay for goods at present. It also says many long-term holders treat drops as a chance to buy more.
Each drawdown in the CoinShares chart, except the current one, ended with a new price high. In the firm’s words, no bear market or cycle downturn has proven permanent.
The note also looks at the 200-week moving average. This line smooths about four years of price data. CoinShares says it has acted as a near floor during past bear markets.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Falls of more than 50% | 10 in 18 years |
| Completed 200-week average episodes | 5 across 11 years |
| Price higher one year after first touch | 5 of 5 episodes |
| Current episode | Sixth, touched June 2026 |
On five completed occasions across eleven years, price traded at or below the 200-week average. In each case, Bitcoin was worth more one year after the first touch. The current episode, in June 2026, is the sixth.
CoinShares warns that the sample is small. Five episodes are not enough for firm statistical conclusions. The episodes also differed, from thin market infrastructure in 2015, to the pandemic liquidity shock of March 2020, to the drop in bitcoin lending in 2022.
The text of the research does not list the exact return figures from its forward-return chart, so none are given here. The finding it states is directional: higher after one year, five times out of five.
A past pattern does not guarantee a future result. CoinShares issues crypto exchange traded products, and its note is marked as a marketing communication. Readers may want to weigh it with that in mind.
The 200-week average is a slow line. It moves little from week to week because it covers so many weeks of data. This is why it serves as a long-term guide and not a short-term signal.
CoinShares also takes a long-term view. It says investors who held through short-term downturns have, in many cases, seen their positions grow over time. It adds that those who spend or borrow in dollars care more about the exchange rate from day to day.
What the Recovery Math Shows
A percent drop and the percent gain needed to recover are not equal. If a price falls 50%, it must rise 100% to return to its old level. The formula is the drop divided by one minus the drop.
Bitcoin.com applies this to the present. A 32.74% drawdown needs a 48.68% gain. The 52.92% maximum drawdown would have required a 112.4% gain from the bottom.
Deeper drops need far larger gains. A 77.06% fall needs about 335.9%, and an 84.69% fall needs about 553.2%. The 93.58% fall of 2011 needed about 1,457.6%.
| Drawdown | Gain needed | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | 25.0% | Correction line on Bitcoin.com chart |
| 32.74% | 48.7% | Current drawdown |
| 50% | 100.0% | Bear market line on Bitcoin.com chart |
| 52.92% | 112.4% | Current cycle low |
| 77.06% | 335.9% | Cycle 3 low |
| 80% | 400.0% | Deep bear line on Bitcoin.com chart |
| 84.69% | 553.2% | Cycle 1 low |
| 93.58% | 1,457.6% | 2011 crash |
Gain needed is calculated by Coincentral.com as drop divided by (100% minus drop).
This is one reason a shallower drop in the current cycle matters. A smaller fall needs a smaller rebound to get back to the high.
The Bitcoin.com chart marks a 20% correction, a 50% bear market and an 80% deep bear market. By those labels, the current drawdown of about 33% sits between a correction and a bear market. The cycle low of 52.92% crossed the bear market line but stayed well above the deep bear line.
The result also depends on which high is used. Bitcoin.com sets the high at $124,448, while Bitbo uses $126,102. A reader using the Bitbo high would need about 52.4% from $82,726 to reach it.
Recovery math also explains why bear markets feel long. After a 50% drop, a price that rises 50% is still 25% below its old high. Only a 100% gain brings it all the way back.
Put another way, the price has already gained 42.9% from the low, and another 48.68% is needed to reach the high. The two gains multiply to the full 112.4% needed from the bottom.
Summary: Current Cycle vs. Past Cycles
The current drawdown is about 33% to 34%, depending on the source. That is below Bitbo’s historical average of 42.8%. It is also well below the 84.8% average maximum drop of the four completed bear markets.
The current cycle did reach 52.92% at its low on July 1, 2026. That is the shallowest maximum drop of the five episodes on the Bitcoin.com list. The price has since regained part of the loss.
On timing, the bottom came after 268 days, faster than three of the four earlier episodes. Past recoveries took between 631 and 1,177 days from the peak. The current cycle is at day 371.
CoinShares reports that Bitcoin touched its 200-week average in June 2026, the sixth such episode. In the five earlier ones, Bitcoin was higher a year later. The firm also says the sample is small.
Chainthink and MAC_D show that smaller pullbacks continue inside the larger picture. The latest one, 7.61%, matches the 7.58% average of the 2022 to 2025 cycle.
The data has limits. Each source uses its own price feed, the sample of bear markets is five, and past results do not predict future ones. This article reports data and is not financial advice.
No single source gives the full view. Bitcoin.com supplies the cycle table, Bitbo and Glassnode supply live readings, CoinShares supplies the long-run context and Chainthink supplies the short-term view.
Readers who track Bitcoin may want to watch three numbers. They are the drawdown from the high, the days since the high and the gain needed to recover. Together they show depth, time and distance in one place.
