TLDR
- Bitcoin produced an unusual HODL Wave pattern not seen across 17.5 years of available data.
- Willy Woo said buying near the market bottom appeared gradual rather than concentrated in sharp bursts.
- The pattern could suggest accumulation by one large whale or a small number of entities.
- ETFs, institutional custody, and derivatives may also explain why normal HODL Wave spikes are absent.
- Bitcoin recently slipped below $77,000 as traders watched rate risks and a $2.51 billion options expiry.
Bitcoin has produced an unusual on-chain pattern that has not appeared before in 17.5 years of HODL Wave data, according to analyst Willy Woo. The signal suggests that buying near the market bottom developed slowly instead of through a sudden wave of demand.
Woo said the pattern could point to one holder, or a small group of buyers, steadily accumulating Bitcoin price. However, he also noted that changes in market structure could offer other explanations for the unusual reading.
Bitcoin HODL Waves Show Missing Buying Spikes
HODL Waves groups Bitcoin supply based on how long coins remain unmoved. The youngest bands track recently transferred coins and often show clear activity when new buyers enter the market.
Woo said previous Bitcoin bottoms produced visible spikes in these short-term bands when many investors bought at similar times. The latest data does not show the same pattern, making the current cycle different from earlier periods in the dataset.
We have an ANOMALY.
Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale.
When it's many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That's happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now. pic.twitter.com/1cU23USB3R
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) September 11, 2026
Instead, the buying appears to have taken place gradually. Woo said that pattern may fit the activity of one large whale or a limited number of entities building positions over time.
Market Structure May Explain the Pattern
The single-whale theory remains only one possible explanation. Woo acknowledged that exchange-traded funds, institutional custody services, derivatives, and other market changes may affect how recent Bitcoin buying appears in on-chain data.
Bitcoin trading has changed greatly since HODL Wave records began. More activity now takes place through regulated funds, custodians, and derivatives markets, which can reduce the direct link between investor demand and visible wallet movements.
Because of these changes, the absence of sharp spikes does not confirm that one investor bought the market bottom. The data only shows that recent accumulation looks different from patterns seen during past Bitcoin lows.
Bitcoin Faces Pressure Near $77,000
Bitcoin recently fell below $77,000 on Thursday before recovering from the session low. Despite the rebound, the market remains under pressure as traders assess the risk of higher interest rates.
A large derivatives expiry is also scheduled for Friday. Coinbase Markets said about $2.51 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, with Bitcoin making up most of the total value.
The expiry could add short-term volatility as traders adjust positions. For now, investors are watching whether Bitcoin can hold recent support while analysts continue studying the unusual HODL Wave structure.
