TLDR
- The FAA has approved Boeing to produce 47 737 MAX jets per month, up from 42, with plans to push beyond 50 and eventually 60
- CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed China’s 200-jet order is just an “initial tranche,” with more expected
- Boeing delivered 600 jets in 2025, up from 348 in 2024, but the 2018 peak of 800+ deliveries has not yet been matched
- Defense backlog is at record levels, though the business has not posted an operating profit since 2021
- Analysts rate BA a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $259.80; the stock opened at $224.36 on Thursday
Boeing (BA) stock opened at $224.36 on Thursday after gaining 2.5% on Wednesday, as CEO Kelly Ortberg updated investors at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference on production progress, China orders, and the path back to profitability.
The headline number from Wednesday was the FAA’s approval for Boeing to build 47 737 MAX jets per month. That’s up from 42, which itself was a raise from the 38-per-month cap imposed after a door plug blew out on a 737 MAX 9 in January 2024.
Boeing plans to push production north of 50 per month in the coming months, and eventually to more than 60. Those numbers matter more to the investment case right now than almost anything else.
In 2025, Boeing delivered 600 jets — a real improvement from just 348 in 2024. But the company’s 2018 peak was over 800 deliveries. Analysts expect Boeing to surpass that level by 2028, targeting around 860 deliveries.
The math is simple: more planes mean more revenue and more free cash flow. Boeing has burned through roughly $38 billion in cash between 2019 and 2025, after generating about $59 billion in free cash flow in the seven years before that. The hole is deep and production is the shovel.
China Orders: More to Come
On China, Ortberg tried to manage investor disappointment. Beijing recently committed to 200 jets, which fell short of the 500 some investors had been hoping for. Ortberg called it an “initial tranche” and suggested more would follow.
That framing helped, though it didn’t move the needle much. Boeing’s commercial backlog already stretches well into the 2030s, so China is more of an upside story than a near-term necessity.
The FAA also said it expects to certify the 737 MAX 7 this summer and the MAX 10 before year-end. Both certifications would open up additional delivery options. The 777X and the longer MAX 10 are expected to begin deliveries in 2027.
Defense: Still Losing Money, But Improving
The defense division remains a drag. Boeing’s defense business lost about $130 million in 2025, following a $5.4 billion loss in 2024. It has not reported an operating profit since 2021.
Ortberg said Boeing intends to move away from fixed-price contracts, which have been a consistent source of losses. The defense backlog is at record levels, and management is targeting a return to “high-single-digit” profit margins.
Recent losses of some NASA and Italy-related contracts, plus competition from SpaceX, are reminders that the defense turnaround won’t be straight up.
On the institutional side, hedge funds and large investors own 64.82% of Boeing stock. Director Bradley Tilden bought 1,370 shares at $218.50 on May 20th, and Director Mortimer Buckley added 2,230 shares at $224.20 in March.
The average analyst price target sits at $259.80, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. In Q1 2026, Boeing posted a loss of $0.20 per share, beating estimates of -$0.68, on revenue of $22.22 billion — up 14% year-over-year.
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