TLDR
- ADA is trading around $0.161–$0.163, down slightly as short positions outweigh buying pressure
- Whale wallets holding 100,000–100 million ADA have accumulated to their highest level since February 2023, at 25.65 billion ADA
- The Van Rossem hard fork is scheduled for July 18, bringing lower transaction costs and smart contract improvements
- Futures open interest rose to $421–$445 million, with the long-to-short ratio at 0.58, showing bearish derivatives positioning
- Liquidity clusters at $0.160 and $0.170 are key levels that could drive ADA’s next major price move
Cardano (ADA) is trading around $0.161 to $0.163 on July 16–17, down roughly 1.39% as short sellers have held the upper hand ahead of a major network upgrade.
ADA traded between an intraday low of $0.1611 and a high of $0.1664 on July 16, pulling back from an early-July peak near $0.195.
Despite the price dip, large holders are quietly buying. Whale wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have grown their balances to 25.65 billion ADA — the highest level since February 2023.
Smaller wallets tell a different story. Sub-100 ADA wallets own roughly 0.7% fewer coins than they did four months ago, showing a clear split between big and small investors.
Derivatives data points to bearish sentiment in the short term. CoinGlass placed ADA’s weighted funding rate at -0.0067%, meaning short position holders were paying longs. The long-to-short ratio stood at 0.58, and open interest rose 4% to around $421–$445 million.
Van Rossem Hard Fork: What’s Coming
The Van Rossem hard fork, approved by Cardano’s governance on July 13, is set to activate on July 18. Intersect, the member-based organization overseeing the Cardano ecosystem, has urged all infrastructure providers to update their software before the cutover.
UPDATE
CARDANO RATIFIES THE VAN ROSSEM HARD FORK 😱😱😱@Cardano has officially ratified the Van Rossem hard fork, with activation scheduled for July 18, 2026, at 21:45 UTC following approval from DReps, SPOs, and the Constitutional Committee.
The upgrade enhances Plutus smart… pic.twitter.com/0BFWoVY35X
— Mintern (@MinswapIntern) July 16, 2026
Van Rossem will introduce new Plutus functionality and lower execution costs, making transactions and applications cheaper to run on Cardano. It also lays the groundwork for Leios, a scaling upgrade planned before the end of 2026 that aims to increase transaction capacity.
On the technical side, ADA sits below the Murrey Math resistance at $0.1709 on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index stands at 44–46.92, placing momentum in neutral-to-slightly-bearish territory. The MACD shows only a modest positive reading.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Resistance levels sit at $0.173 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), $0.179 (50-day EMA), and a denser zone between $0.195 and $0.207. Support holds near $0.150, with the June 25 low at $0.1382 below that.
CoinGlass’s liquidation heatmap shows a dense liquidity pool between $0.160 and $0.161, just below current price. A larger cluster sits around $0.170. A drop below $0.160 could trigger long liquidations and push ADA toward $0.1465. A move above $0.170 could force short sellers to close and support a recovery.
Analyst Celal Kucuker posted on X that he expects Cardano to reach a new all-time high of $5, citing a bullish divergence on the weekly RSI and calling the current zone a bottom. He said he expects a parabolic rally to begin from current levels.
Cardano will hit a new ATH at $5.
I expect the parabolic rally to begin.
We’re in the bottom zone.
There’s a bullish divergence on the weekly RSI.$ADA 🚀 pic.twitter.com/gpFvsLL7P5
— Celal Kucuker (@CelalKucuker) July 13, 2026
ADA remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs at $0.179, $0.208, and $0.276 respectively, confirming the broader downtrend is still intact ahead of the July 18 fork activation.
