COIN Stock Jumps 3% Despite Coinbase Q2 Revenue Miss

TLDR

• Coinbase reported Q2 revenue of $1.22B, below analyst estimates of $1.29B.
• COIN stock fell about 7% after the company’s second-quarter earnings release.
• Coinbase prediction market revenue and contracts rose 106% from the previous quarter.
• Coinbase reached a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume.
• Average USDC held on Coinbase products reached a record $20B during Q2.

COIN stock fell but has recovered as of press time after Coinbase reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter revenue, even as prediction markets doubled and global trading market share reached another record.

Coinbase Revenue Miss Pressures COIN Stock

Coinbase shares dropped about 7% in after-hours trading after the company reported second-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion. Analysts had expected about $1.29 billion, while revenue stood near $1.5 billion a year earlier. However, as of press time, COIN was up 3.59% to trade at $163.

Source: Knockoutstocks

Transaction revenue fell 21% to $599.2 million, below estimates of about $635.1 million. Subscription and services revenue reached $555.1 million, also below market expectations near $594.4 million.

The company reported a net loss of $359.5 million for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $207.8 million, marking Coinbase’s 14th straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

The earnings miss pressured sentiment because Coinbase has now missed top and bottom-line expectations for several quarters. Investors focused on weaker trading revenue despite gains in newer business lines.

Prediction Markets and USDC Business Grow

Coinbase said prediction market contracts and revenue rose 106% from the previous quarter. The business also passed $100 million in annualized revenue during the second quarter.

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Binaries products launched late in the quarter helped activity increase. Coinbase said daily traders tripled, while daily revenue quadrupled compared with May levels.

The company also reached a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume. That marked the third consecutive quarter of market share gains, despite softer industry-wide trading activity.

Chief Executive Brian Armstrong said,

“In Q2 we hit our third consecutive all-time high in crypto trading volume market share, proving our Everything Exchange can deliver in all market conditions.”

Armstrong also said, “Coinbase is no longer a bet just on the price of Bitcoin.” He said crypto is reshaping trading, payments, and lending, with Coinbase positioned across those areas.

USDC activity also remained a strong part of Coinbase’s business. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $20 billion, representing more than 30% of circulating USDC.

Coinbase said 88% of net revenue now comes from sources outside Bitcoin spot trading. Subscription and services revenue accounted for nearly half of total net revenue during the quarter.

COIN Stock Forecast Focuses on Key Price Levels

COIN stock traded near $163.58 after rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band and a marked demand zone. The stock has moved between $154 and $168 after its late-June recovery.

The price sits above the Bollinger Band midpoint, showing better short-term momentum after the recent rebound. However, the earnings reaction could test whether buyers can defend the current support area.

Immediate support remains near $154.46. A close below that level could weaken the recovery and expose the wider demand zone between $146 and $155.

Further selling could push COIN back toward the June low near $140. That level remains important if the market reaction deepens after the Q2 report.

Source: X

The first resistance zone stands between $174 and $181. A daily close above that range could support a stronger move toward $209 to $222.

The near-term COIN stock forecast remains tied to the $154 support area and the $174 to $181 resistance zone. Coinbase’s market share gains, USDC growth, and prediction market expansion provide business support, but revenue weakness keeps investor caution in focus.