TLDR
- Coinbase stock jumped ~4.5% to around $165.60 in Friday trading
- US Tiger Securities upgraded COIN from Hold to Buy with a $200 price target
- Circle received OCC approval to open First National Digital Currency Bank N.A.
- The Trump administration is reportedly deliberating on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve structure
- Barclays kept its Underweight rating and cut its price target to $99; CLO Paul Grewal is also stepping down July 31
Coinbase stock is trading around 4.5% higher at $165.60 on Friday, pushed up by a combination of an analyst upgrade, a regulatory win for key partner Circle, and fresh headlines around Bitcoin policy in Washington.
US Tiger Securities analyst Bo Pei upgraded COIN from Hold to Buy on July 7, setting a $200 price target. Pei argued that Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile has improved after a steep correction and that the worst of the current crypto bear-market cycle is likely behind us.
Then came the Circle news. Circle Internet Group received approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank N.A., which will operate under the name Circle National Trust. That’s a big regulatory milestone — it puts Circle’s USDC stablecoin infrastructure under direct federal oversight.
Coinbase is one of USDC’s largest distributors, so a more regulated and legitimized stablecoin setup is a direct positive for COIN.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Talks Add Fuel
Reports emerged on July 9 that the Trump administration is actively working out the details of a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Traders read that as a long-term demand catalyst for Bitcoin, and Coinbase — as the dominant U.S.-regulated crypto exchange — stands to benefit if institutional and government appetite for the asset grows.
Bitcoin itself is up around 2.2% on the day, trading near $64,388. That matters for Coinbase because transaction revenue made up 54% of its Q1 net revenue. A firmer Bitcoin price directly lifts that line.
Q1 2026 results were rough — revenue fell 31% year-over-year to $1.41 billion as spot volumes and crypto prices declined. So any Bitcoin recovery is closely watched.
Not Everyone Is Buying In
It’s not all one-way traffic. Barclays maintained its Underweight rating and trimmed its price target to $99, well below where the stock is currently trading. That’s a notable counterpoint to the US Tiger upgrade.
There’s also a leadership change to flag. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal announced his resignation, effective July 31. VP of Legal Molly Abraham will step into the General Counsel role. That kind of executive departure can create uncertainty, though it hasn’t dented today’s momentum.
COIN remains well below its 52-week high of $444.65.
The broader market is also in a constructive mood, with the Nasdaq up 1.3% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.8%. High-beta names like COIN tend to get amplified moves on risk-on days like this.
Competitor Robinhood and other crypto-adjacent names are also catching a bid from the same Bitcoin sentiment wave.
Strategy, which holds 818,334 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, is also moving higher. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is still down 28% year to date, tracking Bitcoin’s own 28% decline.
Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can hold above the $64,000 level into the weekend, as that would keep the Coinbase and Strategy trades in play.
Circle stock is also worth watching — the early pop comes against a backdrop of heavy insider selling that could limit how far the gains extend.
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