TLDR
- US stock futures rose Thursday after the US carried out a second round of military strikes against Iran
- Bitcoin held above $62,000, down 1.2% on the day but up 1.6% on the week
- Gold fell for a fourth straight day while Brent crude rose for a third, climbing 1% to $78.80 a barrel
- Money markets moved their next Federal Reserve rate hike bet forward from December to October
- Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed index climbed to 27, ending 40 straight days in extreme fear territory
Stock futures pointed higher Thursday morning as the United States launched a second round of military strikes against Iran.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 each rose 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.3%.
The US military announced late Wednesday it had “started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
President Trump declared the ceasefire between the two countries “over” earlier on Wednesday. He also raised the possibility of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
BREAKING: President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is "over."
"I don't want to deal with them anymore, they are scum," Trump says. pic.twitter.com/laHQdRKZUV
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 8, 2026
Stocks closed mixed Wednesday after paring early gains. Oil prices spiked following Trump’s comments.
Oil Rises, Gold Falls
Brent crude climbed 1% to $78.80 a barrel, its third straight day of gains.
Gold fell for a fourth straight day, trading at around $4,060 an ounce. Higher rate expectations are weighing on the metal, which loses appeal when cash pays more.
Money markets shifted their bet on the next Federal Reserve rate hike to October, pulling it forward from December.
Bitcoin and Crypto Hold Steady
Bitcoin traded at $62,009, down 1.2% over 24 hours but up 1.6% on the week.
Ether was at $1,730, off 1.2% on the day but up 5.7% over seven sessions.
Solana was the weakest performer, trading at $77.25 with a 1.8% daily loss and 1.7% drop on the week. XRP slipped 0.7% to $1.09.
Bitcoin’s reaction to the conflict has been muted. In the past, a Strait of Hormuz headline could push Bitcoin down 5% in a single day. This week it moved just 1.2%.
This pattern has held since February. Each escalation has pulled a smaller price reaction from Bitcoin than the one before.
Traders appear to be treating this as a rates event rather than a crypto-specific risk. Bitcoin is tracking interest rate expectations more closely than oil prices.
The key level to watch is $60,000. Bitcoin has held above it through a rate repricing, an oil shock, and a bond selloff all in the same week.
The Fear and Greed index climbed to 27 Thursday, ending 40 straight days in extreme fear territory. It has not held above 50 since November.
Government bonds in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand also fell Thursday, extending Wednesday’s global selloff. Two-year Treasury yields pushed toward their 2026 high.
Investors are watching the AI chip sector too. SK Hynix is set to IPO on Friday, giving markets a fresh read on chip demand following a sector sell-off in June.
Bitcoin holding above $60,000 through further escalations, while gold continues to slide, would point to the market treating crypto more as a rates-sensitive asset than a risk hedge.
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