TLDR
- Enphase reports Q2 2026 earnings after the close Tuesday, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.47 and revenue of $290 million
- That would mark a 32% drop in earnings and 20% decline in revenue year-over-year
- GLJ Research holds a Sell rating with a $24.47 price target, below the current price of ~$36
- Wall Street’s consensus price target is $48.93, implying ~29% upside from current levels
- Key watch items: U.S. residential solar demand, European battery growth, and IQ9 microinverter traction
Enphase Energy reports second-quarter results after Tuesday’s market close, and expectations are modest at best. The stock trades around $36, down sharply from its 52-week high of $73.74.
Analysts expect EPS of $0.47 on revenue of $290 million for the quarter ended June 30. That would be a 32% drop in earnings and a 20% fall in revenue compared to the same period last year.
On a sequential basis, revenue would edge up about 2.5% from Q1’s $282.9 million — a small positive in an otherwise tough backdrop.
Enphase beat expectations in Q1, posting $0.47 per share against the $0.44 consensus — a roughly 9% upside surprise. The question now is whether the company can do it again.
GLJ Research is skeptical. The firm raised its price target to $24.47 from $21.70 but kept its Sell rating. Its Q2 revenue estimate of $279 million sits below the consensus and at the low end of management’s own guidance range of $280 million to $310 million.
GLJ also sees gross margins coming in at 43.0% on a non-GAAP basis — below the Street’s 43.5% estimate and under the company’s guided range of 44% to 47%. The firm pegs EPS at $0.43, four cents below consensus.
The analyst cited installation proxy data, Chinese supply statistics, and margin data from Enphase’s largest residential storage competitor as the basis for its cautious outlook.
Not everyone is that bearish. The Wall Street consensus rating is Buy, with a mean price target of $48.93 — implying nearly 29% upside from current levels.
U.S. Solar Demand in Focus
The residential solar market grew just 6% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Analysts are forecasting an 18% drop in residential installations for the full year, following the expiration of the Section 25D tax credit.
TD Cowen cut its price target from $70 to $48 while keeping a Hold rating, pointing to building permit data that failed to show the typical Q2 demand pickup.
Bank of America flagged a 15% decline in Chinese solar exports in June, though the export value rose 9% — suggesting shifts in overseas demand rather than an outright collapse.
Europe and New Products as Offsets
Europe could be a cushion. Energy security concerns are driving demand for battery storage systems across the region, and Enphase has been active there.
The company recently upgraded European IQ Battery systems to add home backup capability, launched the IQ9N Microinverter in Australia and New Zealand, and rolled out the IQ EV Charger 2 across European markets.
On the product side, Enphase is ramping its fifth-generation battery, the IQ9 microinverter with gallium nitride technology, and the IQ Solid-State Transformer platform for AI data centers — though the data center opportunity isn’t expected to generate volume until 2028.
The revenue split between geographies and between microinverters and batteries will be closely watched Tuesday evening.
TD Cowen’s updated $48 price target and GLJ’s $24.47 Sell-rated target frame the range of outcomes heading into the print.
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