TLDR
- Barclays initiated MP Materials with a Buy (Overweight) rating and a $69 price target.
- All 18 analysts covering MP now rate it a Buy — a near-impossible consensus on Wall Street.
- MP stock was up 5.1% Friday at $64.85, adding to a 9.3% jump on Thursday.
- MP is up over 220% in the past 12 months, driven by U.S. government rare earth deals.
- GuruFocus flags the stock as 116% overvalued vs. intrinsic value, and insiders have sold $44.5M in stock over three months.
MP Materials stock climbed again Friday after Barclays added its name to an already crowded bull list. The stock was trading at $64.85, up 5.1%, after Barclays analyst Richard Garchitorena launched coverage with an Overweight rating and a $69 price target Thursday evening.
That brings the total analyst count to 18 — and all 18 rate MP a Buy. To put that in perspective, the average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks sits between 55% and 60%. A perfect 18-for-18 is rare.
The average price target across those analysts sits around $80, well above where the stock is currently trading.
But Friday’s move came on top of an already unusual Thursday. MP jumped 9.3% that day, even before the Barclays note dropped. The whole rare earth sector moved: USA Rare Earth rose 7.6%, Ramaco Resources added 5.4%, and Rare Earths Americas gained 3.5%.
Why the Sector Is Moving
The U.S. government has been actively pushing to reduce China’s near-monopoly on rare earth production and processing. Various government deals with domestic producers have included price floors and equity stakes — arrangements that have fundamentally changed the economics of the sector.
That backdrop has fueled MP’s 222% gain over the past 12 months. Gains of that size tend to bring volatility with them, which may partly explain Thursday’s unusual trading.
Not every rare earth name had a good Thursday, though. Neo Performance Materials dropped 7.6% after selling its stake in a Greenland rare earth project to Greenland Mines for $35 million. Investors appeared unimpressed with the price — though Neo had originally bought the project in 2022 for around $3.5 million, making roughly 10x in a few years. A concurrent capital raise at $28.75 also weighed on the stock.
A Reason for Caution
Not everything in the MP picture is straightforward. GuruFocus gives the stock a GF Value of $29.62, putting the current price at roughly 116% above its estimated intrinsic value. The forward P/E stands at 204.15 — high by any measure.
The GF Score comes in at 61 out of 100, reflecting moderate long-term potential. Growth and momentum score well, but valuation ranks just 1 out of 10.
Insider activity adds another layer to consider. Over the past three months, insiders have sold $44.5 million worth of stock against just $1 million in purchases.
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California — the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America. The company carries a market cap of around $11.42 billion.
Friday’s broader market was also higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Dow up 0.7%.
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