TLDR
- XOM trades at $137.03, with a P/E of 22.4x — below its modelled fair P/E of 30.4x, screening as undervalued on 5 of 6 valuation checks
- Acorn Financial Advisory Services increased its XOM stake by 1,031.3% in Q1, ending with 179,187 shares worth ~$30.4M
- Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy, with 11 Buy ratings and an average price target of $164.70
- Q1 EPS came in at $1.16, beating estimates of $0.98; revenue of $83.16 billion also topped forecasts
- XOM pays a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, equal to a 3.0% annual yield
ExxonMobil has delivered a 174% return over five years and 26.1% over the last year alone. Yet at $137.03, the stock still screens as cheap by several measures.
The current P/E sits at 22.4x. That’s above the Oil and Gas industry average of 13.0x, but well below a modelled fair P/E of 30.4x, and below the peer group average of 36.5x. Simply Wall St flags XOM as undervalued on 5 of 6 valuation checks.
The 52-week range runs from $105.53 to $176.41. The stock is trading below both its 50-day moving average of $147.37 and its 200-day moving average of $144.60, which tells its own story.
Earnings Beat and Dividend Intact
In Q1, ExxonMobil posted EPS of $1.16, beating the $0.98 consensus by $0.18. Revenue came in at $83.16 billion, ahead of the $81.13 billion estimate. That’s a 2.4% rise year-over-year on the top line.
Return on equity was 10.24%, with a net margin of 7.57%. Analysts now expect full-year EPS of $11.90.
The company paid a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share on June 10, representing a 3.0% annualized yield. The payout ratio sits at 69.48%.
Institutional Buying and Analyst Views
Acorn Financial Advisory Services made one of the bigger moves in Q1, lifting its XOM position by 1,031.3% to 179,187 shares, valued at approximately $30.4 million. XOM now represents 4.2% of Acorn’s portfolio.
A number of other funds also added new positions in the quarter, including Berbice Capital Management, Midwest Capital Advisors, and Key Capital Management. Institutional investors collectively own 61.80% of XOM stock.
On the analyst side, Jefferies raised its price target from $178 to $184 with a Buy rating. Wells Fargo moved its target from $183 to $185 with an Overweight rating. JPMorgan went from $140 to $170 with an Overweight. TD Cowen maintained its Buy but trimmed its target to $155 from $172.
The consensus average price target stands at $164.70, implying roughly 20% upside from current levels.
XOM and QatarEnergy also reached a Declaration of Marketability milestone on the Cyprus offshore Glaucus and Pegasus gas fields, supporting the company’s longer-term production pipeline.
On the risk side, President Trump has publicly pressured Big Oil to lower gasoline prices ahead of the midterms. That adds some political noise to the sector outlook.
ExxonMobil recently completed its legal redomicile from New Jersey to Texas and secured a Supreme Court ruling that revives an older lawsuit, clearing some legal uncertainty from the books.
The stock’s debt-to-equity ratio is 0.13 and market cap sits at $567.99 billion. The P/E/G ratio of 0.58 adds further weight to the undervaluation argument for those watching growth-adjusted metrics.
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