TLDR
- Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded Fever-Tree from “Hold” to “Buy,” lifting its price target to 910 pence from 900 pence
- FEVR rose 4.2% to 828 pence on Tuesday, outperforming the FTSE Mid-Cap 250 which fell 0.4%
- U.S. off-trade growth jumped to 16% in July-August, up from 6% in Q1 2026
- Kepler raised EBITDA estimates by 5.8% for 2026 and 8.5% for 2027
- A company director bought £348,457 worth of stock on September 11
Fever-Tree (LON: FEVR) stock climbed 4.2% to 828 pence on Tuesday after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to “Buy” from “Hold.” The broker set a new price target of 910 pence, up from 900 pence, pointing to around 14.5% upside from its reference price.
Kepler said the recent dip in the stock is an attractive entry point, citing accelerating U.S. growth and better earnings visibility.
U.S. momentum has clearly picked up. Off-trade growth in the U.S. hit 16% in July and August, compared to just 6% in the first quarter of 2026. Kepler credits improved distribution, merchandising and marketing through Molson Coors.
The UK market has also steadied. After acting as a drag on overall performance, it is no longer pulling results down.
Non-tonic products are playing a bigger role too. They now account for 32% of total sales, giving Fever-Tree another growth lever beyond its core tonic-water range.
On the downside protection side, Kepler flagged input-cost hedging and a profit guarantee with Molson Coors as buffers for EBITDA. Strong free cash flow is also expected to support dividends and buybacks.
Kepler Raises Earnings Estimates
Kepler bumped its adjusted EBITDA estimates by 5.8% for 2026 and 8.5% for 2027. Adjusted EPS forecasts were lifted by 2.2% for 2026 and 11% for 2027.
The upgrade follows a solid first-half report. Fever-Tree posted revenue growth of 14% to £165.1 million and a 30% increase in pretax profit to £14.6 million.
Insider Buying Adds Confidence
Company director Domenico De Lorenzo bought 44,674 shares at GBX 780 each on September 11, spending roughly £348,457. Insider purchases at these levels tend to get attention from the market.
FEVR’s 52-week range sits between GBX 711 and GBX 973. At current prices, the stock is trading below its 52-week high, with a market cap of around £896 million and a P/E ratio of 43.15.
The broader analyst picture remains cautious. One analyst has a Buy rating, three have Hold ratings, and the average price target sits at GBX 920. Berenberg Bank reiterated a Hold with a target of GBX 780. Jefferies has a Buy with a target of GBX 1,100, raised from GBX 1,080 back in July.
The most recent earnings data, released September 10, showed quarterly EPS of GBX 9.50. Analysts are forecasting full-year EPS of approximately GBX 38.32 for the current fiscal year.
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