TLDR
- Guggenheim reiterated a Buy rating on Abivax (NASDAQ:ABVX) and kept its $175 price target after reviewing 44-week maintenance data for obefazimod.
- ABVX trades at $96.15, up over 1,157% in the past year but still 35% below its 52-week high of $148.83.
- The trial showed two non-melanoma skin cancer cases and four melanoma cases, both within the rates management had previously guided for.
- Patients who relapsed during maintenance treatment recaptured clinical and endoscopic remission after being retreated with the 50 mg dose.
- Guggenheim expects the stock to trade between $130 and $150 in the near term and named it a Best Idea.
Abivax (NASDAQ:ABVX) shares sit at $96.15 after Guggenheim reiterated its Buy rating and $175 price target on Wednesday. The call follows fresh 44-week maintenance data from the company’s obefazimod program in ulcerative colitis.
The stock has had a wild ride over the past year, climbing more than 1,157%. Still, it remains 35% below its 52-week high of $148.83, showing just how much volatility has followed this name.
Guggenheim’s note focused on safety data from Part Two of the trial, an area investors have watched closely. The firm said the results landed within expectations management had already set.
What the Data Showed
Two non-melanoma skin cancer cases turned up in the study, both in patients on the 50 mg dose. That works out to an event rate of 0.48 per 100 patient years.
Abivax said the cases were not related to the drug itself. The company pointed to pre-existing risk factors in those patients instead.
The rate fell inside management’s earlier guidance range of 0.30 to 0.70. That matters for a market trying to gauge whether the safety profile is holding up.
Four melanoma skin cancer cases also appeared. These were split evenly across the 25 mg and 50 mg doses.
The melanoma event rate came in at 0.95 per 100 patient years. That’s within the 0.70 to 1.40 range management had flagged ahead of time.
Efficacy and Analyst Outlook
On the efficacy side, the news looked more encouraging. Patients who didn’t respond during the induction phase kept improving with longer obefazimod exposure past eight weeks.
Patients who relapsed during maintenance treatment were able to recapture their clinical and endoscopic gains. That recovery happened after retreatment with the 50 mg dose by week 44.
Guggenheim called the data supportive enough to keep Abivax on its Best Idea list. The firm expects shares to trade between $130 and $150 in the near term, a meaningful gap from current levels.
InvestingPro’s analysis flags the stock as slightly undervalued at current prices. The platform lists 11 additional ProTips for subscribers covering Abivax’s financial health and market positioning.
This isn’t the only recent commentary on Abivax. Wolfe Research trimmed its price target to $136, citing safety concerns it wants to see assessed further.
Truist Securities took a similar path, adjusting its target to $135 while keeping a Buy rating. The firm also cited malignancy concerns as the reason for caution.
BTIG went the other direction, raising its price target to $175. That call came after the firm reviewed favorable safety data from the ABTECT Maintenance Part 2 trial.
Earlier results from the same Phase 3 trial showed 37.2% of patients reaching clinical remission at Week 44 on continued 50 mg treatment. Endoscopic remission was reported in 34.5% of patients in that same readout.
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