TLDR
- Meta reports Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $7.18 and revenue of $60.22 billion.
- Analysts forecast revenue growth of ~27% YOY, slowing from Q1’s 33% pace.
- Rising AI capital expenditure — guided at $125B–$145B for 2026 — remains a key concern for investors.
- Ad impressions and price-per-ad growth will be closely watched as indicators of AI-driven ad performance.
- Management commentary on Meta’s reported Anthropic cloud deal and Muse Spark 1.1 AI model could move the stock.
Meta Platforms reports Q2 2026 earnings on July 29 after the market close, with the stock trading near $604 — down over 8% year to date but up roughly 10% from its 2026 low.
Wall Street expects earnings of $7.18 per share on revenue of $60.22 billion, representing year-over-year revenue growth of around 27%.
That’s a step down from Q1’s 33% growth rate — the fastest Meta had posted since 2021. Analysts will be watching closely to see if the deceleration is in line with expectations or worse.
Adjusted EPS growth is forecast at just 1% YOY. The bulk of Q1’s stronger-than-expected EPS figure came from an unusual tax benefit, so comparisons are tricky.
Meta’s Q2 guidance range was $58 billion to $61 billion. The current consensus estimate of $60.22 billion sits near the top end of that range.
For Q3, analysts are currently modeling $63.2 billion in revenue. Investors will want to see Meta guide to a midpoint above that figure.
AI Spending in Focus
Capital expenditure is arguably the most watched number going into this report. Meta raised its 2026 CapEx guidance earlier this year to $125 billion–$145 billion, up from $115 billion–$135 billion.
That increase — an 8% rise at the midpoint — was one of the main reasons META dropped more than 8% after its Q1 report. Another upward revision could trigger a similar reaction.
Investors are also waiting for signs that heavy AI investment is translating into financial returns. So far, that question remains open.
Ad Metrics and the AI Payoff
Meta’s advertising business is the core of its financials, and it’s where investors will look for proof that AI spending is working.
In Q1, ad impressions grew 19% YOY and price per ad rose 12% YOY — both the highest growth rates in over a year. Given the expected revenue slowdown, some pullback in these figures is anticipated.
Investors will also be watching for updates on Meta’s newer revenue streams, including subscription products and any developments around reported plans to raise equity capital for AI investment.
Meta is reportedly in early talks on a $10 billion cloud computing deal with Anthropic. The company also launched its Muse Spark 1.1 AI model about two weeks ago. Neither is expected to affect Q2 numbers directly.
But management commentary on both fronts could matter. Alphabet said its first-party models processed 22 billion tokens per minute in Q2 — any comparable disclosure from Meta on Muse Spark 1.1 demand would be closely scrutinized.
Meta currently trades at a forward P/E of around 20x, below its three-year average of 23x. The MarketBeat consensus price target sits near $836, implying more than 30% upside. TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus with an average target of $814.
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