TLDR
- Jefferies analyst Randal Konik reiterated a Buy rating and $75 price target on Nike, implying the stock could more than double from current levels.
- Nike stock has fallen 44% in 2026 amid weak China demand and rising competition from rivals like On Holding.
- Nike reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings on Thursday, with Konik forecasting EPS of 48 cents and sales of $11.5 billion, above Wall Street estimates.
- Konik sees the November 16-17 investor day as the bigger catalyst, especially with new CFO David Denton set to issue fresh guidance.
- Nike was removed from the S&P 100 on September 21, and analyst opinions remain split, with BofA cutting to Underperform while BTIG raised its price target.
Nike stock closed at $35.75 on Friday, sitting close to its 52-week low of $35.22. That’s after a brutal 44% drop in 2026, but one analyst thinks the worst might be priced in.
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik reiterated his Buy rating and $75 price target this week. That target implies the stock could more than double from here.
Konik’s optimism centers on Thursday’s first-quarter earnings report. He expects the print to show “continued progress” for the struggling sportswear giant.
His numbers back that up too. Konik is forecasting earnings of 48 cents per share and sales of $11.5 billion, both slightly ahead of Wall Street’s $11.3 billion and 44 cents estimates.
Where the Improvement Is Coming From
Jefferies expects North America and wholesale channels to stabilize this quarter. Better inventory positioning should support a cleaner marketplace and a return to positive gross margin.
Expense management is also expected to help. Jefferies sees selling, general and administrative costs falling to 34.5% of revenue from 35.3%, pushing EBIT margin up to 7.6% from 7.1%.
Nike had already pulled forward some of its gross margin expansion into this quarter. The fourth quarter only slipped 10 basis points excluding tariffs, much better than the 25 to 75 basis point decline management had guided for.
That improvement came from fewer discounts, reserves and cancellations in North America. It’s a sign the domestic business may be finding its footing again.
Not every region is out of the woods though. Jefferies still expects Direct, EMEA and China to weigh on revenue, with profits bottoming out first in those markets.
Classics, Sportswear and Jordan lines are also expected to stay negative for a while longer. Jefferies doesn’t see those categories turning positive until the second half of fiscal 2025.
The Bigger Catalyst Ahead
Konik thinks Thursday’s earnings aren’t even the main event. He’s more focused on Nike’s investor day scheduled for November 16-17.
New CFO David Denton is expected to issue fresh guidance at that event. Konik says a new CFO “owns none of the prior guidance,” making this a clean slate moment.
What matters most, according to Konik, is whether Denton sets fiscal 2027 and 2028 targets that management can actually hit and beat. That kind of credibility could be the real trigger for a rally.
Nike’s rough year has come with plenty of pain beyond the stock chart. Rival On Holding recently poached soccer star Kylian Mbappé away from Nike, adding insult to injury.
The company was also booted from the S&P 100 index on September 21. There’s chatter that its spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average could be next.
Analyst views on Nike remain split heading into earnings. BofA Securities downgraded the stock to Underperform, slashing its price target to $30 and citing innovation concerns.
BTIG takes the opposite view, raising its price target to $55 while keeping a Buy rating. Stifel landed somewhere in between, trimming its target to $40 while lowering fiscal 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates.
BTIG projects first-quarter revenue of $11.4 billion, a 2% decline year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of 44 cents. Nike reports earnings before the bell on Thursday.
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